NC State Wolfpack vs North Carolina Tar Heels Pick ATS
NC State Wolfpack (7-4 SU, ATS 2-7-0) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-2 SU, ATS
5-4-1)
Date: Friday, November 25th
Location: Kenan Memorial Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
TV: ABC
Point Spread: Wolfpack +6.5/Tar Heels -6.5 (Did you know that you could be betting games at -105 instead of -110? Imagine how much money you’d be saving! From a better bookie too! Find this great offer and more at BAS Sportsbok!)
Money Line: Wolfpack +195/Tar Heels -246
Over/Under: 56.5
RECENT FORM
So far this season, the Wolfpack have posted a regular season record of 7-4. This includes
going 3-4 in Atlantic Coast action. This season, the Wolfpack have been favored in 5 games while
posting an ATS mark of 2-7-0. Their average over-under betting line is 38.5 leading to an
over-under record of 2-6-1.
In their last game, NC State entered as the 4.0 point underdogs vs. Louisville. The Wolfpack
ended up losing the game by a score of 25-10. In the game, NC State finished with one touchdown
through the air while throwing for 214 yards. In the rushing game, the Wolfpack did not find the
endzone, while finishing with a total of 77 yards on the ground.
Quarterback Devin Leary comes into the game having completed 118 of 193 passes for a passer
rating of 90.71. Overall, he has a total of 1265 passing yards. Thayer Thomas leads the team’s
receiving corps with 51 catches for a total of 586 yards. The top option in the run game for the
team is Jordan Houston, who has carried the ball 119 times for a total of 500 yards.
The Tar Heels come into the game with an overall record of 9-2. This strong play includes
going 6-1 in Atlantic Coast action. This season, the Tar Heels have been favored in 7 games while
posting an ATS mark of 5-4-1. Their average over-under betting line is 58.05 leading to an
over-under record of 4-6-0.
In their previous game, the Tar Heels fell to Georgia Tech on the road by a score of 21-17.
North Carolina also picked up an ATS loss, as they were 21.5-point favorites entering the game.
North Carolina ended the game with a total of 202 passing yards on 30 attempts. However, they did
not find the endzone. The team ended the game with two rushing touchdowns, along with a total of
163 yards on the ground.
Quarterback Drake Maye comes in the game having completed 269 of 390 passes for a passer
rating of 122.96. So far, the team’s most productive wide receiver is Josh Downs, who has caught
77 passes for a total of 878 yards. In the run game, Omarion Hampton has accumulated 393 yards on
83 attempts to lead the team.
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BETTING TRENDS
In their last ten contests, the Wolfpack have a straight-up record of 6-4-0, while covering
the spread at a rate of 60.0%. They maintained a positive scoring differential in these games by
averaging 25.3 per game and allowing 18.6. Their last ten over-under record is 4-5-1.
Across the Wolfpack’s last five road games, the team averaged 20.4 points per game while
allowing 28.8. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 0-5-0 while going 1-4-0
straight-up.
North Carolina has gone 8-2-0 over their last ten contests, including posting an ATS record
5-4-1. On average, the team scored 36.2 points while allowing 31.0, leading to a positive scoring
differential.
When looking at their past five home matchups, North Carolina has an ATS record of 2-3-0 while
averaging 37.6 per game. The team went 3-2-0 overall in these games.
More Picks: Get our Friday Week 13 Tul/Cin betting analysis plus pick ATS
KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS
Heading into this week’s matchup, the Wolfpack will look to improve their offensive output, as
they are ranked just 87th in the NCAA in points scored and have an opportunity for a big game vs.
a North Carolina defense that is allowing an average of 30.36 points per game.
Although the Wolfpack have turned to the passing attack at a below-average rate this season,
they have an opportunity to find success through the air vs. a North Carolina defense, allowing
teams to complete passes at a rate of 58.86%.
So far, the NC State offense averages 126.64 yards per game on the ground. This production has
come on an average of 36.27 rush attempts per game (70th). This week, the Wolfpack will be facing
a North Carolina defense ranked 152nd in rush yards allowed per game. This year, they have
averaged 136.22 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.
So far, the Tar Heels are averaging 38.0 points per game on offense, which is good for 13th
most in college football and have a tough matchup against an NC State defense allowing just 18.73
points per game.
Although the Tar Heels have turned to the passing attack at a below-average rate this season,
they have an opportunity to find success through the air vs. an NC State defense allowing teams
to complete passes at a rate of 61.91%.
So far, the North Carolina offense is averaging just 163.82 yards per game on the ground. This
production has come on an average of 36.27 rush attempts per game (69th). This week, the Tar
Heels will be facing an NC State defense that is 20th in rush yards allowed per game. So far,
they have averaged 122.75 yards per game when facing top 25 rush defenses.
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