Navy Midshipmen vs. UAB Blazers Predictions: Can Navy Continue to Roll?

Navy Midshipmen (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. UAB Blazers (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 3

Date/Time: Saturday, September 28, 2024 at 12PM EDT

Where: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama

TV: ESPN2

The Navy Midshipmen make the trip to Alabama to take on the UAB Blazers in an American Athletic Conference matchup on Saturday. Following three home wins to open the season, the Midshipmen get their belated road opener against the Alabama-Birmingham Blazers. Navy beat Memphis 56-44 last week in another big offensive showing and now take the show on the road. UAB is off to a slow start, perhaps at 1-2, but showed some guts last week as big underdogs against Arkansas, losing 37-27 but giving the Razorbacks a lot of stress by being right in there until the very end. Can they do the same against Navy or will the Midshipmen offense run over another opponent this week?

Getting a Lay of the Land

Trent Dilfer is in his second season at the helm for Alabama-Birmingham, looking to improve on a 4-8 mark last season. It’s a program that showed a lot of life returning from their two-year defunct period with a string of good seasons, before fading a bit recently. Navy has been in a similar predicament, freefalling at the end of longtime coach Ken Niumatatolo’s tenure and going 5-7 in Brian Newberry’s first year in 2023. So, their 3-0 mark to begin the season comes with some promise. Sure, a win over Bucknell doesn’t count for a ton, and beating Temple is not the signal of a revival. Also, giving up 44 to Memphis last week wasn’t a great look for this Navy defense, but Memphis was unbeaten and favored by 9, so nit-picking a 12-point win misses the spirit of the point. This doesn’t appear to be the same Navy team we’ve been seeing lately.

What Navy Will Be Looking to Do

As usually seems to be the case with military-based schools in the FBS, running is the name of the game. Furthermore, the quarterback is given a lot of that workload. It’s no different for Navy QB Blake Horvath. Against Memphis, he was excellent. Efficient through the air with 192 yards and two touchdowns on 9/12 passing, Horvath added 211 yards rushing and four TDs on the ground. Horvath’s ability to make big plays with his arm gives another dimension to this Navy offense. In a close game against Memphis, they got a long pick-six from Rayaun Lane, III. to help seal it. So, at least their defense was able to come up with some big plays to make up for their overall looseness on the day.

Navy’s road to offensive success in this game seems easy enough. UAB not being able to control the Arkansas offense is no great shame, but being run over at times by Louisiana-Monroe is not a great look. We saw UAB quarterback Jacob Zeno have one of his better games last week in the gutty effort against the Razorbacks, but he has thrown interceptions in all three games, which were costly. The second-year starter is still able to generate some heat with his arm on occasion, and after watching Navy get lit up through the air at times last week suggests that’s an angle the Blazers can exploit at home this week. That’s an area the Midshipmen will need to see deliver if they want to keep control of this game on Saturday. With guys like pass-catching running back Lee Beebe, Zeno has an array of different contributors who can step up with a big play. Was Navy’s showing against a dangerous offense like Memphis a sign that they could unravel as they get deeper into conference play? Or is UAB thinking they can replicate that just wishful thinking?

UAB: A Difficult Team to Assess

There seems to be this chaotic nature to the Blazers, which makes taking stands on them either way a bit tricky. Already this year, we’re seeing this wide range of forms. The team that hung in there until the very end against Arkansas would be in great shape in this matchup, while the team that lost to ULM by 26 would be lucky to get out of this one with their lives. In going 1-1 against the spread the last two weeks, the spread was off by a combined 49 points. So, they’ve been erratic—both good and bad. I wouldn’t expect that type of unpredictability to end as they begin conference play this week against the Midshipmen.

The Main Difference in This Game

An assessment of this game lends itself to a lot of back-and-forth. In the end, a compelling remnant is the notion of UAB looking at a problematic matchup with their defense against this Navy run game. Between the work of experienced back Alex Tecza and Horvath running wild, I’m not sure how much UAB can withstand. And not to take too much from Arkansas having a big day on the ground against them, but they didn’t look that strong against ULM the week prior, either. In a game with a lot of unknowns and different moving pieces, do you just subscribe to the most obvious element? In the end, will a full afternoon of the Navy run game be enough to subdue the Blazers? I think it just might.

Take the Small Road Favorite

Granted, things have changed since Navy thumped UAB last year, 31-6. But that running game can still deliver for Navy, and I suspect it will again on Saturday. I don’t question that the Blazers and Jacob Zeno, who was awful in this matchup last season, can create some menace through the air. And being a team that can show up in different forms makes betting against them at home a dangerous proposition. There isn’t an abundance of Navy highlights that occurred in Birmingham. While in conference, it’s a locale they’ve never seen. Still, I see them getting over the hump on Saturday, getting the win and cover. I’ll take the Midshipmen.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Navy Midshipmen minus 3.5 points.