Navy Midshipmen vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Game Pick ATS

Navy Midshipmen (2022 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2022 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Date/Time: Saturday, August 26th, 2:30 PM

Where: Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Ireland

TV: NBC

Point Spread: NAVY +20 / ND -20 (Move the line to zero with a 20 point teaser from Wagerweb!)

Over/Under Total: 50.5

The 2023 college football season kicks off in Ireland this year with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Navy Midshipmen battling it out at Aviva Stadium in Dublin. Notre Dame holds a substantial 81-13-1 advantage in the series, including a 10-1 record in the last eleven games.

DOING THE HARTMAN

The Notre Dame offense will have an all-new look in 2023, with both quarterbacks from last year (Drew Pyne and Tyler Buchner) having left the team along with offensive coordinator Tommy Rees. The quarterback position is in good hands, though, thanks to Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman taking over as signal caller. Hartman ranks first in the ACC in career passing touchdowns and second in passing yards. However, it will be interesting to see how he adapts from the RPO (run-pass option) of Wake Forest to the more balanced, traditional offensive approach of Notre Dame’s drop-back passing. He will also be inheriting a team short on receiver experience following key departures at the end of the 2022 season.

MISSING MAYER

Gone is one of the best tight ends that Notre Dame ever had in Michael Mayer, along with roster mainstays at receiver Brandon Lenzy and Lorenzo Styles. Big play wideout Jaylon Thomas is the only returning receiver that posted double-digit catches a season ago and is the top listed at his position on the roster. Joining him in the starting lineup will be Mayer’s replacement at tight end Mitchell Evans, along with 6′ 4” Tobias Merriweather and converted running back Chris Tyree. The former backfield member Tyree has plenty of receiving experience after posting 24 receptions in 2022, and statistically speaking, the team always seemed to benefit from his scoring success, as the Irish are 7-0 in the last seven regular season games that he got into the endzone, including a 5-0 mark a season ago.

FULL ESTIME AHEAD

Thanks to the transfer of Logan Diggs and the position transition of Chris Tyree, the Notre Dame backfield responsibilities now rest heavily on the shoulders of junior Audric Estime. Last year the Irish tried a three-headed monster attack with a backfield that lacked consistency and never entirely worked out in the way they intended, but now it appears as though Estime will be the clear focal point. It is easy to see the logic in giving the returning runner such responsibility, considering he is coming off of a season in which he averaged just under six yards per carry and led the team with 920 yards rushing with 12 total touchdowns. Much like the aforementioned success with Tyree scoring, the Irish have seen a similar feat when Estime gets the ball with consistency, as Notre Dame has won their last seven in a row when he has more than 10 carries in a game.

BATTLESHIP

Audric Estime and the Irish offensive line, highlighted by tackles Zeke Correll and Joe Alt, will face their most significant test against the Midshipmen up front, where the clear strength of the Navy defense awaits. Senior linemen Jacob Busic and Donald ‘Biscuit’ Bernard lead the Midshipmen into 2023 and hope to find a return to success to last year when the team finished second in the NCAA in rushing yards allowed per game. The Navy defense has plenty of experience with eight returning starters but also lost three of their top five in tackles, including the leader in sacks and tackles for loss John Marshall.

NIUMATALO TO NEWBERRY

The biggest change facing the Navy football program heading into the upcoming campaign is at the head coaching position, with Ken Niumatalo unceremoniously fired in the locker room after their 2022 ending loss to Army, which marked the teams’ third straight losing season. Brian Newberry was hired to take his place and will at least have an offensive star back from a season ago as the first-timer attempts to replace the winning head coach in Midshipmen history.

DABA DO

The heart of the Navy offense is fullback Daba Fofana. The 5’8” battering ram led the team in both rush yards and touchdowns in 2022 and should improve on those numbers this season as the clear focal point of the Midshipmen offensive strategy. After Fofana, is a group of backs who make up the remaining components of the Navy rushing attack, including Fabian France, Amin Hassan, Brandon Chatman, and Anton Hall. How the Irish defensive line responds to the loss of their all-time sack leader in Isaiah Foskey and how much Navy is able to take advantage of any missteps up front will be one of the biggest focal points of their strategy of controlling the clock enough to pull the upset.

TOSSIN TEDDY

With both returning senior quarterbacks unavailable during the spring, a new name emerged as the Navy signal caller in sophomore Tedros Gleaton. With a fresh face at the helm, the team is expected to play into his skill set and attempt to throw the ball more than last year. There is ample room for improvement in that department considering the Midshipmen finished 128th in passing offense a season ago and routinely rank in the bottom ten through the air on an annual basis. Navy returns their top receiver from last year, Jayden Umbarger, who led the team with a whopping 16 receptions and 265 yards on the season while tying for tops in touchdown catches with two while looking to also incorporate two taller threats in Nathan Kent and Camari Williams. Notre Dame finished last in the NCAA in 2022 in defensive red zone efficiency, but for Navy to exploit that sort of weakness, they will need to find more consistency moving the ball with Gleaton, especially after their offense ended last year ranked 109th in the same category.

THE FINAL BREAKDOWN

Navy has been especially good against the number of late when traveling from Annapolis, going 5-1 in their last six neutral site games and 7-2 in their last nine as an away dog. They have also been very effective versus the number regardless of where they are playing when getting points, having covered in seven of their last eight games as an underdog, including a streak of 6-0 when getting over ten points. Notre Dame is 7-2-1 in their last ten as a road favorite but just 2-5 in their last seven against non-Power Five teams and 1-5 in their last six as a double-digit favorite.

That’s all well and good, but this is a new Irish team with Sam Hartman at quarterback. With his ability to extend a passing defense thanks to his deep throw ability, I believe they will be able to take advantage of a Navy pass defense that has dropped down the national rankings all the way to just 97th a season ago in yards per game allowed and is expected to struggle this year as well. Despite the loss of Isaiah Foskey, the Irish still have talent on a line led by Javontae Jean-Baptiste, along with a linebacking crew consisting of Marist Liufau, Jake Kiser, and the teams’ leading tackler the last two seasons, JD Bertrand. Navy quarterback Teddy Gleaton may find passing success usually unseen at the position at his school, but an opening game matchup against Irish cornerbacks Cam Hart and Benjamin Harrison is going to be too much for the newcomer to overcome.

Notre Dame has won five straight against Navy, including the last four, by an average of over 21 points per game. The Midshipmen also haven’t opened a season with a victory against an FBS team in the last ten years, and I expect both of those streaks to continue in Dublin on Saturday, with the Irish getting the win and cover against the Midshipmen.

Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame -20. Kick your football season off right with a 125% real cash bonus up to $400 + get a free half point everytime you bet your favorite team when you use bonus code PREDICTEM on your first deposit at GTBets Sportsbook!