Navy Midshipmen vs. Memphis Tigers Pick ATS

Navy Midshipmen (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Memphis Tigers (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)

College Football Week 3

Date and Time: Thursday, September 14, 2023 at 7:30PM EDT

Where: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: NAVY +14.5/MEM -14.5 (Bet on games at -105 instead of -110! –> Betanysports!)

Money Line: Midshipmen +460/Tigers -675

Over/Under Total: 47.5

The Navy Midshipmen take on the Memphis Tigers on Thursday in an American Athletic Conference battle. Memphis has beaten the Midshipmen four times in a row and looks to make it five at home this week. The first indications this season so far are favorable for Memphis to repeat current history, but it’s still early enough so that you really don’t know. For their part, Memphis has taken care of business with a 56-14 win over Bethune Cookman and last week’s 37-3 win over Arkansas State, but things get harder here in their conference debut. Navy was able to rebound from a 42-3 hammering by Notre Dame in their first game to beat Wagner last week, 24-0.

Early Returns

Navy, a four-win team from last year, looks a little rough to start the season—non-competitive against the Irish and then not even to really get their offense in high gear against the likes of the FCS’ Wagner Seahawks. They look for their first covered spread this week in a tough conference game. QB Tai Lavatai leads a more balanced offense than what we’ve seen, but they still lean on the run in a big way. One area of promise is Lavatai’s leaning on the deep ball more, giving this offense another dimension. It’s just that Navy’s offensive success this season all comes down to what they did against Wagner—not a really great barometer. From what we’ve seen of the Navy’s offense and Memphis’ defense so far, this might not be a breeze for Lavatai and Company. And their defense, a laughingstock against Notre Dame and a shutdown unit against Wagner, what are we supposed to make of that? Navy won’t be facing a lot of offenses in conference that can replicate Notre Dame’s explosiveness, but obviously, not all is fine now that they shut out Wagner.

A potential Memphis backer would have to admit that little has been proven with stomping Bethune Cookman and Arkansas St. Everything looks in order with a 7-win team from last season, but they certainly started the season with a couple spoon-fed wins, and we shouldn’t penalize Navy for just having been scheduled tougher to begin the season. Third-year starter Seth Henigan is off to a fast start, flashing a lively arm and having made some big runs along the way. He’s been getting help on the ground and through the air by a big cast thus far, and they will wield a lot at the Navy “D.”

Questions for Navy

Against this Memphis defense, you have to wonder if the Navy line can get off and help make a push for guys like standout fullback Daba Fofana and the other backs in their varied cast. There are a lot of career starts along that line, and maybe back in their wheelhouse within the conference, we see them getting back to their bread-and-butter more. A new OC has added some wrinkles to their triple-option, and maybe some early bumps were to be expected. And again, a blowout to a ranked team and an uneven showing against an FCS foe isn’t really going to tell us much about how Navy should fare in this spot.

Navy needs their defense to carry over whatever started against Wagner. Guys like Jacob Busic bring the heat up front and there is a lot of experience on this side of the ball, with nearly all starters from last season back again this year. Last season’s defensive coordinator is now the head coach, with Brian Newberry taking over in that role. This is a context where we can really see if his handiwork paid off or if we should have taken the Notre Dame walloping more to heart.

Can the Memphis “D” Make an Impact?

While we’ve seen Henigan and this Memphis offense have its moments, what has really driven the first two games is their playmaking defense. With turnovers and a big pass-rush, they’ve been able to dominate their first two overmatched foes without really hitting a high gear offensively. With four turnovers and Tigers’ defenders getting past the Arkansas St. offensive line with ease, the offense was not pressed last week. This script held true in their first game, as well.

This week, the Tigers might need to depend on a more-conventional route to a win. Navy might not be good this season, and 5-6 wins might be a high-end prognostication. But they do have some teeth on defense and will provide infinitely more resistance than Memphis has seen so far this season. And that applies to the other side of the ball. It’s not like Memphis’ offense has been cranking. And the “D” we’ve seen in the first two games were put in flattering contexts in which to showcase their abilities. Both sides of the ball might not come off looking so good this week. But as usually is the case, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Take the Points

While the approaches are very different, I’m not so sure there’s a monstrous separation with these teams in terms of where they fall on the overall pecking order. In this conference, it’s a twist here and a turn there that separates a 4-win team from a 7-win team that can say they won a bowl game. In the end, it’s two mid-pack conference teams, and I don’t think it’s bonkers to anticipate a halfway-competitive game. Sure, Navy hasn’t been good in this matchup for several seasons, and maybe Memphis measures up better to the eye test through two games, but I see the Midshipmen keeping this one within range. I’ll take Navy.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Navy Midshipmen plus 14.5 points.

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