Betting Analysis for Navy Midshipmen vs. ECU Pirates – Free Pick

Navy Midshipmen (7-3 SU, ATS 6-3)  vs East Carolina Pirates (7-4 SU, ATS 6-4)
Date: 12:00 EST Friday, November 29th
Location: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: USNA -1/ECU +1
Money Line: USNA -115/ECU  -106
Over/Under: 55.5

ESPN will be covering the action as the Navy Midshipmen and East Carolina Pirates face off in a week 14 matchup. The game is set for 12:00 ET at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville, with Navy coming in with a 7-3 record and East Carolina at 7-4. The over/under line is at 55.5 points, and Navy is currently the slight -1 point favorite on the road. The money lines are close, with Navy at -115 and East Carolina at -106.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Navy Midshipmen and East Carolina Pirates did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Navy Midshipmen have a record of 3-0. The Navy Midshipmen also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 54 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 2-1.

Navy Midshipmen Recent Form:

Navy enters Week 14 with a 7-3 record, but they have no chance of winning the American Athletic Conference. However, they are guaranteed to be bowl-eligible. The Midshipmen are 3-2 on the road and 3-1 at home this season.

Navy has been favored in six of their ten games, going 5-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +8.6 points per game, and they are 6-3 against the spread this season.

The over/under line for this week is 55.5 points. Navy’s games have averaged 55.6 points, with an average over/under line of 49.7 points. Their over/under record is 6-3, with games going over by an average of 4.3 points.

Navy’s offense is ranked 27th in our power rankings heading into week 14, and they are 33rd in scoring, with 32.1 points per game. Their rushing attack is the focal point, averaging 244.2 yards per game on 44.6 attempts, placing them 11th in the nation in rushing yards.

Eli Heidenreich leads the team with 320 rushing yards, averaging 7 yards per carry, and has scored two touchdowns this season. Quarterback Blake Horvath has thrown for 1,154 yards, 11 touchdowns, and four interceptions, with a passer rating of 108.

Defensively, Navy has allowed 23.5 points per game this season, ranking 29th nationally. In their recent 35-0 loss to Tulane, they gave up 35 points, allowing 359 total yards, including 221 rushing yards on 47 attempts and 138 passing yards.

Opponents have averaged 220.8 passing yards per game against Navy, completing 59.3% of their throws. On the ground, Navy has allowed 165.6 rushing yards per game, ranking 109th in the country.

Away Injury Report

East Carolina Pirates Recent Form:

East Carolina enters Week 14 with a 7-4 record, but they are out of the running for the American Athletic title. However, they are guaranteed bowl eligibility. The Pirates have gone 3-1 at home this season and are ranked 90th in our CFB power rankings.

They’ve been favored in five of their 11 games, posting a 4-1 record as the favorite. East Carolina’s average scoring margin is +6.4 points per game, and they are 6-4 against the spread this season.

Their over/under record is 6-4, with an average line of 56.7 points. East Carolina games have averaged 60.9 points, and this week’s line is set at 55.5 points.

East Carolina’s offense ranks 25th in scoring, averaging 33.6 points per game, and they are 18th in passing yards, with 278.7 yards per game. They are 39th in passing attempts and completions, averaging 32.9 attempts and 20 completions per game. Their third-down conversion rate is 43.5%, and they are 102nd in our offensive power rankings heading into week 14.

Katin Houser leads the team with 1,640 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 102. Rahjai Harris has rushed for 858 yards and ten touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Anthony Smith has 737 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 35 catches.

East Carolina’s defense has allowed an average of 27.3 points per game this season, including 28 points in their recent win against North Texas. They gave up 447 total yards, with 266 yards and three touchdowns coming through the air.

Opponents have averaged 242.2 passing yards per game against East Carolina, ranking them 124th nationally. The defense has also allowed 158.7 rushing yards per game on 40.3 attempts per game.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Navy has played well in their previous three road games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 24 points per game while allowing 12. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, East Carolina has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 30 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the East Carolina Pirates have gone 3-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 2-3.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Navy Midshipmen have a straight-up record of 8-2. But their mark vs the spread was just 7-3.

Free Pick

Leading up to this Friday afternoon matchup between Navy and East Carolina, I am getting some action on Navy to win this one and cover. Look for Navy’s defense to keep the Pirates’ offense in check all game long. Getting Navy at -1 is a steal, and this one is one of my favorite bets for week 14.

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