Mountaineers Host Jaguars: Can App State Cover the Spread?

South Alabama Jaguars (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 3

Date/Time: Thursday, September 19, 2024 at 7:30PM EDT

Where: Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, North Carolina

TV: ESPN

The South Alabama Jaguars come to Kidd Brewer Stadium on Thursday for a Sun Belt Conference showdown with the Appalachian State Mountaineers. On Saturday, the Mountaineers were really up against it, down 16-0 to East Carolina, before QB Joey Aguilar exploded, ending up with 424 yards, as he led Appalachian State back to a 21-19 win. They are now 2-1, with their only loss coming in week two to Clemson. South Alabama, meanwhile, is coming off a Thursday destruction of Northwestern State by the unsightly score of 87-10. After losing to Ohio and North Texas to start the year, it was good for them to have some success, albeit against a woeful FCS foe. They now take to the road for what will surely be a demanding road-test as each team begins their conference play this week. Who should we get behind in this Thursday Sun Belt battle?

Getting a Read on the Situation

South Alabama got off to a rough start under first-year head coach Major Applewhite, a name more-seasoned college fans will surely remember. The Jaguars’ program struggled in its first decade in the FBS, but under their previous coach had seriously upgraded the program, first winning ten games and then notching their first-ever bowl win last season. Meanwhile, Appalachian State head coach Shawn Clark has managed to keep his team near the top of the conference for much of his tenure, now in his fifth season at the helm. They’re coming off a nine-win season and a bowl win, and they have looked like a potential contender in this conference so far to start the season. And despite being in the same conference, these two teams haven’t played each other since 2021.

What to Expect

These teams have a more narrow definition of success, with this conference largely shut out of the bigger bowl games and the CFP. A lot comes down to how you do in this conference and with that beginning for both teams this week, this is where things start to get serious. South Alabama broke their scoring record by 32 points last week, which is jaw-dropping, but how much of that can be applied to this context? But even against North Texas and Ohio, they had some offensive success before seeing it really culminate on Thursday. QB Gio Lopez has a lot of weapons and the leadership of a guy who knows what it takes. Fluff Bothwell is a back who can do damage. And we need to remember how young some of these key guys are on the Jaguars’ offense, with red-shirt and true freshman in key spots. One guy who has a lot of experience is receiver Jamaal Pritchett, who has already made a nice connection with Lopez.

Appalachian State is a little more cemented, both with their coaching staff and with different players on their team. Aguilar put up big numbers last season and is in lock-step with the coaching staff. His top ball-catchers, receivers Kaedin Robinson, Christian Horn, and Makai Johnson, along with tight end Eli Wilson are all experienced members of this offense. We saw last season and certainly last week what happens when Aguilar gets into a groove and is slinging it to these targets all over the field. It’s an experienced group that knows how to do a lot of damage.

Stability vs. Potential

I don’t question whether Applewhite can whip this South Alabama group into shape, which sounds strange after they just put up 87 points. But between the revamped coaching staff, departed key talent, and youngsters occupying such key roles, they do have more of the vibe of a work-in-progress than their opponent this week. Applewhite will be looking to score and I see good things with their quarterback Gio Lopez. They are dangerous, making any game-breakdown tricky because they’re a team who can start fast, get the jump on an opponent, and maybe surprise some people this season. But this is still the conference-opener for both teams and maybe that’s a time to place a premium on some of the things Appalachian State brings to the table—stability, proven production, a cemented system, less player-turnover, and more experience on both sides on the ball.

X-Factors

South Alabama played last Thursday, giving them a full week leading into this game, albeit with this one being on the road. Still, it was a wipeout win over a non-demanding opponent where most Jaguars starters were pulled very early. Contrast that to the Mountaineers playing on Saturday and having to dig deep for a big comeback. Could we see that register in this game or is it too early in the season for things like fatigue to start being a factor? Could you even flip it and say Appalachian State winning like that and overcoming adversity gives them a leg up as they approach the rigors and competitiveness of conference play?

Lay the Points on the Home Favorite

There have been sequences this season that have been troubling for the Appalachian State defense, though they seemed to be getting it together at the end of their last game. Still, I can understand those thinking this South Alabama offense can do enough damage in this game to, at the very least, keep it close. I think that the experience and depth of the Mountaineers, however, will resonate more fully here, as they get a solid four quarters on both sides of the ball, creating a little separation to get the win and cover this week at home. I’m going with the Mountaineers in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Appalachian State Mountaineers minus 8 points.