Mountain West Title Game: UNLV at Boise State Predictions & Betting Odds

UNLV Rebels (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. Boise State Broncos (11-1 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)
Mountain West Conference Championship Game
Date/Time: Friday, December 6, 2024 at 8PM EST
Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
TV:

The UNLV Rebels play the Boise State Broncos in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on Friday at Albertsons Stadium. We’ve seen both teams have a really good season. For the Broncos, they’re looking to parlay a win here into a berth into the College Football Playoff, coming off a red-hot season where their only setback was a 3-point loss to the top team in the nation—the unbeaten Oregon Ducks. It’s the biggest season this decade for the longtime kingpins of this conference. For UNLV, a 10-win season serves as a transcendent year for this long-struggling program. A win here would be of massive significance. Can the Rebels spring the surprise, or will we see the Broncos rise to the occasion?

Hints from the First Game

On October 25, these teams tangled in a big conference game at Allegiant Stadium in Vegas, with Boise edging out the Rebels 29-24. There were some positive signs from the Rebels in that game. They at least prevented supreme Boise back Ashton Jeanty from going nuclear, as he had a modest (for him) 128 yards on 33 carries with a lone TD. The defense also played well in keeping Boise State QB Maddux Madsen off-key for most of the game, with good coverage making it hard for the Broncos field general. Meanwhile, UNLV quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams was pretty good on the other side, throwing two touchdowns and running in another one on 105 yards rushing.

On one hand, UNLV should take some solace from holding a lead on Boise going to the final quarter. Considering the work of UNLV this season, it says a lot. At the same time, Boise State can have sequences like this within regular season games where they’re not really shining and instead just doing enough to commandeer a win into their column. The landscape is a little different in this particular matchup. First, the Broncos are at home, in front of a crowd that knows the stakes. Speaking of which, this is for a shot at glory, not a game buried midway through a schedule where the motivation isn’t as starkly defined. In this one, I wouldn’t bank on that first game too much if I were a potential Rebels’ backer this week.

Hope for the Rebels

It depends on how much credence you place on how the Broncos finished the season, looking a bit shaky in spots and covering just one spread in the last month. First was a letdown one-score win over a bad Nevada team. And while they bounced back against San Jose State, they fell behind 14-0 very early where a better team could have taken advantage. Against a 2-8 Wyoming team, they were bailed out by a 4th quarter TD. They closed the regular season strongly enough with a more thorough win over Oregon State, 34-18, this past Friday, but let’s just say they haven’t exactly finished in style this regular season. There have been some bumpy passages down the final stretch.

You can’t ignore the wherewithal of a team like the Rebels. Long flat on their backs as a program, they showed some major signs of life last season. The loss to Syracuse early was a setback, as was seeing their starting QB leave the program amidst some payment issues. In came Hajj-Malik Williams, and they barely missed a beat. A win over Boise would have gone a long way, but they came up short. But to still get through the season with four straight wins and two straight covers has them hitting the final stretch with some good energy. I’d suspect they look at the last game between these two teams, see how close they were, and come out here in a low-pressure spot with some wind in their sails.

Facing the Facts with the Rebels

Despite the work of Williams behind center, along with guys like RB Jai’Den Thomas, the Rebels are at a little bit of a firepower deficit in this showdown. Since they last played Boise, UNLV lost top receiver Ricky White, who was helpful in the first game against the Broncos. While they did well the first time around with Jeanty, the back has 2288 yards and 29 touchdowns this season, and holding him in check to some degree once was a big enough ask without necessarily expecting them to be able to do it again. And it’s not just Jeanty, as Madsen has become a more reliable aerial threat this season with just three picks to go with his 21 touchdown throws. With WR Cameron Camper and other viable targets, along with Madsen being useful with his feet, this Broncos offense has options in the unlikely event that Jeanty is kept in check.

Lay the Points on the Home Favorite

Something makes me hesitant to low-rate the chances of the Rebels after all they’ve overcome and the massive upward move they have made overall with their program. Teams like this can be hard to dissuade. Something tells me that even if the Broncos see some things go their way this week, as they respond accordingly to the sky-high stakes, this won’t be a picnic. But with the spread more than already accounting for the danger potential that lies within the Rebels, I think the Broncos can repeat a win in this spot in what should be a decently competitive game. I’ll take the Broncos.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Boise State Broncos minus 4 points.

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