Missouri vs. Texas A&M Predictions: NCAAF Week 6 Best Bets

NCAAF – No. 9 Missouri Tigers at No.25 Texas A&M Aggies
Where: Kyle Field (College Station, TX)
When: Saturday October 5th at 12:00 PM EST
Watch: ABC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Texas A&M -2.5
Over/Under: 48.5

A top 25 matchup in the SEC to kick off another college football Saturday? Sign me up! The 9th ranked Missouri Tigers will take the trip south to College Station to face off against the 25th ranked Texas A&M Aggies in a game that will certainly live up to the hype. There are no certainties when two teams of this caliber take the field, but if there’s one thing that’s guaranteed, it’s that this will be must watch TV. Things have been going well for both programs through the first 5 weeks of the season but this will be the toughest test each has faced. I expect a back-and-forth game, but I have identified an advantage play that you won’t want to miss out on. Before I drop my best play in this matchup, lets see how both sides stack up and look at the rationale to support my play.

Missouri Betting Preview

The Missouri Tigers come into this game undefeated on the year, boasting a perfect 4-0 record. They started the year with easy victories over Murray State and Buffalo in which they didn’t allow either to score a single point. In the next two weeks, the Tigers had to earn both victories, winning by 6 and 3 against Boston College and Vanderbilt respectively. Missouri has had the luxury of playing their first four games in the confides of their home stadium but will venture out on the road against the Aggies this weekend. The Missouri Tigers feature one of the most prolific offenses in all of college football and are exceptionally balanced between the pass and the run. Quarterback Brady Cook leads the way with a 68.7% pass completion percentage while averaging 236.5 yards per game. Cook has connected repeatedly with wide receivers Theo Wease and Luther Burden, the latter of which is poised to be a top NFL draft pick. If there is one inefficiency in the passing game, it’s that the Tigers have only accumulated 4 passing touchdowns on the year. Luther Burden has been on the receiving end of each and every one. While they can spread the ball around quite well and rack up yardage, they lack big play ability through the air. The vast majority of the Tigers’ scoring comes on the ground. As a team, they rank 40th in rushing yards per game with 206.5. In the backfield, Missouri uses a 2 to 1 mix of Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll, but there have been five Tigers who have shared in the team’s 11 rushing touchdowns. Noel is averaging over 110 yards per game and over 6 yards per carry. The Tigers will periodically utilize their wide receivers in the run game, keeping opposing defenses on their toes. Defensively, Missouri has made it very difficult for opponents to gain yardage. Through four contests, they rank 8th in total yardage, 11th in passing yards and 34th in rushing yards allowed. The defensive unit can also get to the opposing QB and averages 2 sacks per game with 7 players contributing to their totals.

Texas A&M Betting Preview

The Aggies of Texas A&M have had a solid showing in their 2024 campaign. They currently sit at 4-1 with their only loss coming in their opening match against Notre Dame. Texas A&M has taken down two SEC opponents in Florida and Arkansas, one on the road and one at home. Their four-game win streak has not been easy by any stretch of the imagination, but it has been one of the more impressive in college football so far and they find themselves back in the top 25 rankings. The Aggies feature an offense that relies heavily on their running game and picks and chooses their passing spots. A&M comes into this week with the 21st ranked rushing attack averaging 231.6 yards per game. They are led in the backfield by Le’Veon Moss who is just shy of averaging 100 yards per game. Amari Daniels is a complementary back who adds to the rushing proficiency. While QB Marcel Reed is not the most advanced passer, he is able to add yardage on the ground and currently ranks second on the team in rushing yards with 230 on the season. His completion percentage (54.4%) is lower than the Aggies would like, but he has thrown for 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, highlighting his ability to protect the ball and limit unnecessary turnovers. Texas A&M has been strong enough defensively to get the job done, but their overall rankings are a bit worrisome. They allow opponents to gain 342.2 yards per game and rank 130th against the pass and 87th against the run. They have allowed 18.0 points per game but will need to tighten things up against arguably the most dangerous offense they will face. One area they excel in is turning the opponent over. They have generated 7 interceptions and 4 forced fumbles on the year and are led in the secondary by defensive back Marcus Ratcliffe. If they can keep this trend alive on Saturday, they will have a good chance to walk away victorious.

My Pick: Missouri +2.5 (-110) and Missouri ML (+110)

The Missouri Tigers offense will be too much for the Aggies to handle on Saturday. Their balance and ability to disguise their run packages will allow them to move the chains consistently. The Texas A&M offense is too one dimensional and they will struggle on the ground against a Missouri defensive front that concedes less than 100 yards rushing per game. Take the better offense and defense with the free points, and if you believe in the Tigers like I do, the money line is a nice play.