Missouri vs. Texas A&M: NCAAF Week 6 Upset Alert & Best Bets

A Match Play on Missouri

My two methods for identifying teams that the books made the Wrong Fav have a match on two teams this week.
I’m definitely buying one of them and will discuss it here. The other game I may or may not buy. Either way, I’ll post it in the forum, in case anyone’s looking for angles on that game.

WF1 says Texas A&M is the Wrong Fav in their game against Missouri.
WF1 is 10-6 overall on the team it says should be the Fav, 10-4 on Rd teams.
Mizzou is on the road this week.

WF2 says Texas A&M is the Wrong Fav.
WF2 is 19-20 on Rd teams.
It’s a game under .500 and I’m looking for the record to pull even with this game because when I get a match, where BOTH plays choose the same Wrong Fav, the combined record is 5-1.

Washington let me down in this same match play last week. Making matters worse is the fact that I had a choice between two teams in this spot and I liked Washington +3 better than BYU +3.
Washington got a push while the Cougars beat Baylor SU, on the road in Texas, 34-28. Missed opportunity on my part.

The Huskies +3 was a difficult bet to watch, but one that showed the importance of the “When to Buy Recommendation” that I include with every pick.
Buying it on Wednesday and getting +3 gifted me with a Push instead of a loss. Between Wednesday and Friday, the line steadily moved in favor of the Huskies.
By game time, some houses had Wash -1. They lost by three points, 18-21.

The Huskies played poorly. Very.

Too many penalties.

Bad clock management in the final two minutes.

A turnover on downs when going for it on 4th and goal.

A SECOND turnover on downs when going for it on 4th and goal in the red zone, instead of kicking the field goal.

Not one, not two, but THREE missed field goals (which, I guess, explains why they kept going for it on 4th and goal.

Washington out gained Rutgers 521 yards to just 299. And yet, somehow managed to lose.

It was a display of total incompetence. Rutgers played the better game, but Washington is the better team. And they almost cost me a unit.
Knowing WHEN to buy and what number to buy saved me. And hopefully will do so again Saturday on this match play between Missouri and Texas A&M.

Let’s check some stats on the Tigers and Aggies.

Missouri’s undefeated, 4-0 SU.
Texas A&M is 4-1.
The Tigers are a mediocre 2-2 ATS, the Aggies slightly worse at 1-4 ATS.

The more important Hm/Rd ATS break down shows Missouri has benefited from playing at home all four games so they have no ATS road record for this season. But they’re 7-1 ATS in their last eight Rd games and 6-1 SU in their last seven games against an opponent in the Southeastern Conference, which makes getting a few points a big plus in this one.
And the Aggies are 0-3 ATS at home, so there’s another stat in my favor.
They haven’t faced each other in the last two years so there’s no relevant data there.

SOS (Strength of Schedule) seems to show a huge advantage for Texas A&M. According to various ranking sites, they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country, coming in at approximately 20, while Missouri is ranked near the bottom at approximately 120.
And the Aggies have faced some top programs in Notre Dame, Florida and Arkansas, winning two of them, losing only to the Irish, while Missouri’s beating up on the likes of Murray State and Buffalo.
But here’s the thing about SOS – you can only play the teams on your schedule. Just because you haven’t beaten any of the top teams doesn’t mean you can’t, you just haven’t had the opportunity to play any yet.
SOS has much more relevance later in the season when more games have been played. I don’t rate it very highly in week five.

When to Buy Recommendation:

The line opened at A&M -2′ and stayed there throughout the week.
Some books have added extra juice to the -2′, some have added juice to the +2′.
Looking at all the stats for both of these teams – points for and against, yardage, time of possession, etc – I see two closely matched teams.
I suspect this might be a close one so I’m going to get my +2′ up to +3 in case it’s a field goal game.

The question is – which shop can I get the best price at?
The best option in this situation is to find a book that has extra juice on the Fav, and our sponsor, Bookmaker, fits the bill.
Buying the hook in this game can cost you as high as -130 but since Bookmaker has extra juice on Texas A&M I can by the hook there at just nine cents more.
That’s nine cents more than I want to pay but the Washington game is fresh on my mind and I want the field goal in this one, too.

This week’s play:
Mizoo +3, -119

Recap: 1-1-1
Record: 9-4 (I don’t track pushes. I do too much time-consuming number crunching without adding meaningless numbers to my workload.)

Review: Lost with Wake Forest, pushed with Washington, got a win with Under in the Texas game.

No games qualify this week for my NP Under (17-7, 70% this season.)
Very unusual and VERY disappointing.
But numbers change, and maybe something will qualify between now and Saturday. Be sure to check the PredictEm forum for added plays this weekend.