Missouri vs. Arkansas: Predictions & Free Total Pick

Arkansas Razorbacks (6-5 SU, ATS 5-4)  vs Missouri Tigers (8-3 SU, ATS 6-3)
Date: 3:30 EST Saturday, November 30th
Location: Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO
TV: SECN
Point Spread: U OF A +3.5/MU -3.5
Money Line: U OF A +147/MU  -179
Over/Under: 54.5

Arkansas and Missouri are set to face off on Saturday, November 30th, with a 3:30 ET kick-off at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia. The game will be broadcast on SECN, and Missouri comes in as the -3.5-point favorite at home. The over/under line is currently at 54.5 points. The money line odds are +147 for the Razorbacks and -179 for the Tigers. Missouri has an 8-3 record, while Arkansas is 6-5 this season.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Arkansas Razorbacks and Missouri Tigers did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Arkansas Razorbacks have a record of 2-1. The Arkansas Razorbacks also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 58 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 3-0.

Arkansas Razorbacks Recent Form:

Arkansas enters Week 14 against Missouri with a 6-5 record, ensuring bowl eligibility. They are 3-3 at home and 2-1 on the road this season. Despite having a 0% chance of winning the Southeastern, they are 100% bowl-eligible. The Razorbacks are ranked 32nd in our power rankings.

Arkansas has been favored in just three games this season, going 3-0 in those matchups. Their average scoring margin is +6.5 points, and they are 5-4 against the spread, with a 3-0 record on the road and a 2-4 mark at home.

The over/under line for this week is 54.5 points. Arkansas games have averaged 55.7 points, with their over/under record at 4-5. Their average over/under line is 55.5 points, and they’ve fallen short of the line by an average of 1.2 points per game.

Arkansas enters Week 14 averaging 31.1 points per game, ranking 39th in the nation, and they sit 46th in our offensive power rankings. Their passing game has been a strength, with 272.7 yards per game, placing them 25th nationally. They rank 28th in third-down conversions, converting 44.3% of their attempts.

Quarterback Taylen Green has thrown for 2,583 yards, completing 60.9% of his passes, with 13 touchdowns and nine interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 87. Leading the ground game is Ja’Quinden Jackson, who has rushed for 703 yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Andrew Armstrong leads the receiving corps with 1,012 yards on 69 catches, though he has just one touchdown this season.

Arkansas’ defense is ranked 35th in the nation against the run, allowing just 117.7 rushing yards per game. In their recent game against Louisiana Tech, they gave up only 57 rushing yards on 31 attempts. The secondary, however, has struggled, ranking 138th nationally, allowing 251.1 passing yards per game.

Against Louisiana Tech, Arkansas allowed 190 passing yards and two touchdowns. They also gave up 14 points and 16 first downs in the game. This season, opposing quarterbacks have a 92.7 passer rating and a 62.4% completion rate against Arkansas’ defense.

Away Injury Report

Missouri Tigers Recent Form:

Missouri enters Week 14 against Arkansas with an 8-3 record, holding the 21st spot in our power rankings. They are undefeated at home (4-0) and have a 2-3 record on the road. The Tigers are already bowl-eligible, but their chances of winning the Southeastern are at 0.0%. However, they have a 1.5% chance of making the playoff, which ranks 24th in the nation.

The Tigers are 6-3 against the spread this season, with a +9.2 average scoring margin. They’ve been favored in five games, going 4-1 ATS as the favorite. At home, Missouri is 3-1 against the spread, and they’ve covered the spread in two of their three road games.

This week’s over/under line is set at 54.5 points, compared to an average line of 50 points for Missouri games. Their over/under record is 4-5, with their games averaging 49.2 points per contest.

Missouri’s offense is averaging 29.2 points per game heading into week 14, placing them 47th in the nation. They are ranked 43rd in our offensive power rankings. Their third-down conversion rate is impressive, ranking 15th at 47.3%. On the ground, they average 170.7 rushing yards per game on 39.3 attempts.

Brady Cook leads the team with 2,080 passing yards and a 64.3% completion rate. He has thrown nine touchdowns and just two interceptions, with a passer rating of 95. Nate Noel has rushed for 779 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry. Theo Wease Jr. has 709 receiving yards on 51 catches.

Missouri’s defense has been strong this season, ranking 20th nationally by allowing just 20 points per game. In their recent game against Mississippi State, they gave up 20 points, allowing 338 total yards, including 147 rushing yards and 191 passing yards.

Opponents are averaging 132.7 rushing yards per game and 181.5 passing yards against Missouri, which ranks 26th in the country. Quarterbacks have completed 59% of their passes with a passer rating of 83.7 against Missouri’s defense.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road contests, the Arkansas Razorbacks offense has averaged 30 points per game while allowing an average of 27. Arkansas posted an overall record of 4-6 while going 9-1 ATS.
• Across the Missouri Tigers last ten home games, the team averaged 28 points per game while allowing 22. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 8-2 while going 6-4 straight-up.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Arkansas Razorbacks have a straight-up record of 1-4 and an ATS mark of 3-2.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Missouri Tigers have a strong straight up record of 5-0. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.

Free Pick

The best way to play this matchup between Arkansas and Missouri is to take the under, with the line sitting at 54.5. I can see both offenses having trouble moving the ball at times in this one. Look for this to be a lower-scoring game than expected, and go with the under at 54.5 points.

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