Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Auburn Tigers: Expert Betting Analysis & Pick

Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-3 SU, ATS 1-4) vs Auburn Tigers (3-4 SU, ATS 2-4)
Date: Saturday, October 28th
Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
TV: SECN
Point Spread: Mississippi State +6.5/Auburn -6.5
Money Line: Mississippi State +197/Auburn -250
Over/Under: 43.5

The Mississippi State Bulldogs and Auburn Tigers matchup in a SEC showdown at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, AL. The over/under for this matchup is currently 43.5, while Auburn is favored by -6.5.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Mississippi State took the most recent game between the teams, picking up the 39-33 win over Auburn. Mississippi State’s rushing attack finished with 13 rushing yards and averaged 0.7 yards per attempt. Defensively, they gave up 331 yards of offense to Auburn.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Recent Form:

After securing a 7-3 win against Arkansas, Mississippi State’s record now stands at 4-3 as they approach this week’s matchup with Auburn.

Mississippi State was the underdog at +7.5, giving them an ATS and a straight-up win. The under hit in the game with the over/under line set at 47 points.

In the win against Arkansas, quarterback Mike Wright wrapped up the game with a QB rating of 80.21 after completing 8 of 12 passes for 85 yards. He also added one touchdown to his performance.

In addition to his passing performance, quarterback Mike Wright showcased his skills in the running game against Arkansas, rushing 11 times for a total of 60 yards. For the game, Justin Robinson hauled in two receptions for a total of 40 yards which led the team.

Against Arkansas, the Bulldogs’ defense was excellent against Arkansas, giving up just 3 points on 200 yards allowed. Arkansas’ passing game finished with 97 yards. Up-front, Mississippi State gave up 2.8 yards per attempt. In terms of passing yards allowed per game, Mississippi State’s defense is ranked 91st. Opponents, on average, attempt 31.6 passes against the Bulldogs. They are allowing 25.7 PPG, which places them 89th in college football. Their rush defense ranks 57th in the NCAA.

Away Injury Report

Auburn Tigers Recent Form:

As Auburn prepares to take on Mississippi State, they have a record of 3-4. The Tigers most recently lost to Ole Miss by a score of 28-21.

The betting lines going into the game were 55.5 on the over/under and Auburn as 6.5-point underdogs. As they combined for 49 points, this was a hit for the under and Auburn was handed an ATS loss.

In the loss against Ole Miss, quarterback Payton Thorne wrapped up the game with a QB rating of 85.42 after completing 9 of 13 passes for 100 yards. He also added one touchdown to his performance.

Auburn’s leading rusher against Ole Miss was Jarquez Hunter, who rushed for 91 yards and found the endzone two times on 15 carries. In addition to his work running the ball against Ole Miss, Jarquez Hunter led the team in receiving yards, catching three balls for 54 yards.

The Tigers’ defense finished the game by giving up 427 total yards to Ole Miss. The team’s run defense allowed 225 yards rushing compared to 202 in the passing game. As we head into this week’s game, the Auburn defense ranks 80th for points allowed, with an average of 23.9 points per game. Teams have been gaining 214 passing yards per game against them (71st nationally). Against the run, they’ve given up 158.1 rushing yards, placing them 105th in college football.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Mississippi State is 3-2 Against the spread in their last five games on the road.
• Looking across Auburn’s ten most recent home games, they are 3-6-1 against the spread.
• Auburn’s ATS record in their three most recent games as an underdog is 1-2.
• Over their last three games as the betting favorite, Mississippi State has an ATS record of 1-2.

Free Pick

Auburn can run the ball with a few capable backs and two QBs that can use their feet leading to a 30th ranking rushing yards per game. They’ll face a decent Mississippi State run defense that has held the opposition to a 43rd ranked 3.6 yards a carry. The Bulldogs weakness is their pass defense and that is an area that the Tigers are unlikely to exploit. Auburns’ leading passer Payton Thorne has a game high 102 yards when facing the SEC. Mississippi State’s offense hasn’t had a great deal of success against the SEC scoring 17 or fewer points in three of the four games. Take the Under 43.5.