Minnesota at Illinois Betting Analysis & Free Pick | Week 10

Teams: Minnesota Gophers (5-3 SU, 6-1-1 ATS) at Illinois Fighting Illini (6-2 SU, 5-2-1 ATS)

Date: Saturday, November 2, 2024

Time: Noon ET

Location: Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL

TV: FS1

Betting Odds

• Point Spread: Minnesota -3 / Illinois +3
• Moneyline: Minnesota -150 / Illinois +125
• Over/Under: 45

Game Overview

Two teams coming off polar-opposite outcomes meet when Illinois and Minnesota do battle Saturday afternoon in Champaign.

The Illini, even after a bad loss at Oregon last week, are already bowl-eligible after missing out last season. The Gophers, coming off a blow-out win over Maryland, need one more victory to become bowl-eligible for the fourth straight season.

Minnesota has been favored for the last ten meetings between these teams, but Illinois won the last three outright.

The Line

The CFB Week 10 betting market opened Minnesota at -2.5 for Saturday, with an O/U of right around 45. Early betting action edged the Gophers to -3.

According to Sagarin’s CFB ratings (Sagarin.com), Illinois should actually be favored by one point in this game.

Minnesota Betting Preview

The Gophers ride a three-game winning streak into this Saturday after beating Maryland last Saturday 48-23. Minnesota, favored at -6, scored the first 24 points of the game and later led by 38 on its way toward the easier-than-expected victory.

The Gophers racked up 443 yards of total offense, and while they allowed 427 yards of Terrapins offense, most of that came in garbage time, protecting a big lead.

Two games ago, Minnesota scored in the last half-minute to win 21-17 at UCLA. Three games ago, the Gophers scored with just under a minute to go to beat USC 24-17.

At 5-3 overall – it would be 6-2 if their kicker hadn’t missed two field goals in the season opener against North Carolina – Minnesota is a win away from bowl eligibility. The Gophers are also a win away from playing over their season wins O/U, which was 5.5.

Illinois Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Illini are looking to bounce back after falling at No. 1 Oregon last Saturday 38-9. Illinois, catching +23, allowed Ducks touchdowns five of the first six times the defense hit the field, trailed 35-3 at the half, and mounted little challenge from there.

The Illini gave up 527 yards of Oregon offense, and it would have been more if the Ducks hadn’t eased up in the second half.

Illinois started 4-0 this season, then lost at Penn State 21-7. The Illini then won a crazy game against Purdue 50-49 in overtime, then beat Michigan 21-7. So last week’s performance is almost understandable; coming off that big emotional win over the Wolverines, a letdown was almost inevitable.

At 6-2 overall, Illinois is already bowl-eligible. It’s also already played over its O/U for the season, which was also 5.5.

Bigger-picture, at 3-2 in conference play, these teams are part of a five-way tie for fifth place in the Big 10. A win Saturday keeps one of these teams alive – albeit barely – in the battle for a spot in the conference championship game. A loss means they’re out.

Minnesota-Illinois Recent History

The Illini own a three-game winning streak on the Gophers, winning outright three times as underdogs. Last year in Minneapolis, Illinois, at +2, scored on a 46-yard touchdown pass with 50 seconds left to win 27-26.

Common Opponents

These teams have played one common opponent so far this season, Michigan. Minnesota trailed the Wolverines 24-3, rallied to within 27-24, but could get no closer. Illinois, meanwhile, scored the first 13 points on Michigan on its way to that 21-7 victory.

By the Numbers

Minnesota is averaging 334 YPG on offense this season, only 108 YPG on the ground. Defensively, the Gophers are holding opponents to just 283 YPG, 120 on the ground. This while playing what Sagarin ranks as the 53rd-toughest schedule in the country.

Illinois is averaging 357 YPG on offense, with 145 rushing, while allowing 367 YPG and 156 rushing. This while playing Sagarin’s No. 42 schedule.

Totals Report

The totals are split 4-4 in Gophers games this season, which are averaging 45 total points.

Unders are 6-2 in Illini games, which are averaging 48 points.

Free College Football Pick

We consider these teams as very close in all sorts of ways, as apparently do the oddsmakers and the computer ratings. Illinois is a little more balanced on offense, while Minnesota owns the slightly better defense. Ultimately, this game falls under our “reversal of fortunes” betting theory; the Gophers are coming off one of their best performances of the season, the Illini one of their worst. So we consider Minnesota a good candidate for a letdown, to some degree, this week, while Illinois might be primed for a rebound after getting slapped in the face last week. We like the Illini for the win.

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