Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech: College Football Week 7 Sharp Money Picks

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 7
Date/Time: Thursday, October 10, 2024 at 8PM EDT
Where: Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, Louisiana
TV: CBS Sports Network

The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders come to Ruston for a Conference USA showdown with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs on Thursday. The season hasn’t started terribly well for either team, as both the Blue Raiders and Bulldogs enter this game with one win apiece. Louisiana Tech last played on the 28th, losing to the FIU Panthers, 17-10, in their conference opener. Middle Tennessee, meanwhile, also lost on the 28th, dropping a 24-7 result to Memphis. Who can notch their first conference win on Thursday?

What We Are Betting

With Louisiana Tech coming off three straight 3-9 seasons and the Blue Raiders being 4-8 last season, we are not looking at the top end of Conference USA. Their respective results so far this season suggest a similar outcome for both teams. Each team has a lone win against an FCS foe, with the Bulldogs beating Nichols State and the Blue Raiders beating Tennessee Tech, each one-score wins. So, neither team has been impressive at all. With a lot of it appearing to be a wash, one is compelled to look at last season’s result, where the Blue Raiders mostly controlled the game at home, winning 31-23.

There’s a certain amount of personnel stability that might make the Blue Raiders the more comfortable choice. Between QB Nick Vattiato, RB Jaiden Credle, and aerial talent like standout tight end Holden Willis, the Blue Raiders have guys they know can succeed in this very spot, as they did last season. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech doesn’t return much production and the new players haven’t started well, while we’ve seen three different guys behind center all getting significant snaps. Despite similar results overall this season, last year’s result and the greater familiarity and stability on Middle Tennessee’s offense maybe fosters a bit more confidence.

Louisiana Tech: As Bad as It Looks?

Ever since they won 10 games and a bowl under Skip Holtz in 2019, it’s been a downward trajectory for the Bulldogs, bottoming out with three straight seasons of just three wins. Head coach Sonny Cumbie, now in his third season, looks for better this season. The bottom-line results are simply not there. Still, it hasn’t been a total disaster. They took care of business against Nichols State, then played North Carolina State as three-touchdown dogs, losing by only ten points. They then lost to Tulsa in overtime by a FG before a 7-point loss to FIU in their last game. They’re not winning, but they’re not getting embarrassed either. We see the defense playing adequately in spots, with an offense that has potential, but just hasn’t been able to sustain whatever success they get. We see them effective in spots, with the offense often going into long swoons in the middle of the game that end up costing them. But the glimmer of hope is certainly there.

What Can the Blue Raiders Do About It?

Getting into the Louisiana Tech concerns almost infers that Middle Tennessee is the more-together program and if that’s true, it’s not by a lot. At 1-4, the way they landed here is even less impressive than their opponents in a way. As giant favorites, they barely got by Tennessee Tech in their only win with a last-minute TD keeping them from losing. Their subsequent losses, getting dumped by Ole Miss by 49, losing to WKU and Duke both by 28 points, and a 17-point loss to Memphis didn’t do anything to change their trajectory. And while they can now turn their attention toward conference play with a familiar opponent, they beat last season, this is not going well in 2024 for the Blue Raiders.

When dealing with Conference USA teams at this point in the season, where the bulk of their work has occurred outside of the conference, context becomes really important. In that window is where one can make the case that the Blue Raiders have been made to look worse than they really are. Since winning in week one, they have been an underdog by an average of 25 points in their next four games. And when wanting to get a true read on where a team like this stands, you’d prefer a better context than how they fare as giant dogs. This is where their bread is buttered, not in games against teams out of their realm or against FCS foes. But for what we have in front of us, we see two teams having a rough time. It’s just that Middle Tennessee’s difficulties are more understandable in light of who they’ve been facing.

Tough Spot for the Blue Raiders

Context aside, Louisiana Tech hasn’t embarrassed themselves this season. There is this underlying vibe of competency that they have. They’re not that good, but they have an ability to not sink to low depths, and in this context, that could go a long way. They’re one of those teams over the years where you can expect a strong uptick in form when they’re playing at home. They’re just better in Ruston. And the defense we’ve been seeing out of Middle Tennessee could offer this Bulldogs’ offense a chance to shine. This is a tough road conference spot for the Blue Raiders—make no mistake.

Take the Points on the Road Dog

It’s a tricky spot for Middle Tennessee with that defense being on the road. I just feel that some of their offensive stability and experience can start paying off in these lower-end conference matchups they will see this season. After a rough gamut of games, I see the greater ease of this matchup, giving Middle Tennessee an opportunity to show better form on both sides of the ball as they hang in there and get the cover on the road this week. I’ll take the Bulldogs.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders plus 5.5 points.