Middle Tennessee State vs. Western Kentucky CFB Pick For Thursday

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

College Football Week 5

Date and Time: Thursday, September 28, 2023 at 7:30PM EDT

Where: LT Smith Stadium, Bowling Green, Kentucky

TV: CBS Sports Network

Point Spread: MTU +4.5/WKU -4.5 (STOP wasting money betting on games at -110 odds! You only have to lay -105 at BetAnySports! We’ve advertised them for 10+ years with ZERO complaints!)

Money Line: Middle Tennessee +170, Western Kentucky -200

Over/Under Total: 60

The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders come to Bowling Green for a Thursday night Conference USA matchup with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. The Blue Raiders are 1-3, coming off a 31-23 loss to Colorado State last week, and enter a tough road spot against a foe they have not beaten since 2018. The Hilltoppers have struggled a bit at 2-2, coming off a tough 27-24 loss to Troy last week. After two straight 9-win seasons, WKU head coach Tyson Helton looks to get things rolling with conference action beginning this week. Who can get us the cover this week in this C-USA showdown?

Are the Blue Raiders Catching the Hilltoppers at the Right Time?

With a 13-2 mark in conference and two straight 9-win seasons coming into this season, including a 4-game win streak over Middle Tennessee State, Western Kentucky has rightfully earned its rep as one of the better teams coming out of this conference. And just maybe, their reputation is out-legging their actual effectiveness thus far. Two straight losses are hardly cause for alarm, especially when one is an understandable walloping at the hands of Ohio St. But to give up so many yards to Troy both on the ground and through the air suggests this “D” may have taken a few steps back in 2023.

Even during this recent stretch of Middle Tennessee losses to Western Kentucky, they’ve been pretty close, while also maintaining a decent winning clip within the conference. It’d be fair to say both of these teams are off to slow starts, which isn’t really a major condemnation on Conference USA teams, many of whom begin the season out of their wheelhouse in quixotic non-conference games with the Blue Raiders having been slaughtered by Alabama and WKU suffering the same fate to the Buckeyes. How these teams perform in this context is how they’ll eventually be judged. In other words, if there’s a conference where it’s hardest to judge teams off the first quarter of the season, it might be this one.

What to Expect on Thursday

The Blue Raiders have a nice quarterback in Nicholas Vattiato, who is completing over 70% of his throws with 7 TDs thus far. He works with a nice back in Jaiden Credle while also chipping in with some runs of his own. His top receivers Elijah Metcalf, Holden Willis, Jeremy Tate, Jr., and Justin Olson have all gotten in the end zone already, and it’s a decent offense with some variety. When we see the last few results for the Western Kentucky defense, particularly their allowances to Troy, maybe this isn’t such an awful road-spot for the Blue Raiders. I’d expect them to hit the scoreboard with decent regularity. As the quality of the aerial offenses the Hilltoppers face increases, we’ve seen them struggling to keep pace.

With Middle Tennessee State opening their conference play this week, it will be interesting to see how their defense holds up. Last week wasn’t so hot, giving up a big aerial day to Colorado State’s Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi. But before that, they were pretty tough on Missouri in a close one, also putting it on Murray State, albeit in a reduced context. Still, last week’s woes in the secondary don’t really bode well when going against the Hilltoppers and quarterback Austin Reed and his 9 TDs against just one pick. His O-line keeps him well-protected, even against some of the better pass-rushing defenses they’ve already faced this season. They’re definitely a more aerially-inclined offense, and with Malachi Corley and Easton Messer leading the way, it could be rough on conference pass defenses this season.

One would be within their rights to expect a certain amount of offense in this game. Middle Tennessee’s Nicholas Vattiato has had two cracks at this, not really having a good game in either case as he looks to get over that hump. And to their credit, they do have a wider route to offensive success, with Vattiato flashing some better aerial chops lately and some backs who can do damage. Whether that level of offensive variety can overcome Western Kentucky’s more high-powered aerial offense, in addition to the drawbacks of their secondary, remains to be seen for the Blue Raiders.

Questions

Are we placing too much stock in Western Kentucky’s last few games, particularly with their shaky defensive performances? Based on those, you’d think a versatile Middle Tennessee State offense with an improving and experienced QB in Vattiato would have an angle in this one. Then again, the Hilltoppers being on the road out of conference is not the same as being at home against a familiar rival, in which case this WKU defense might snap back into form in more favorable conditions. Does Austin Reed and this Western Kentucky offense just have this defense’s number? Can they overcome what looks to be some moderate improvements we’ve seen on the Middle Tennessee defense so far this season in spots?

Lay the Number on the Home Favorite

One should anticipate a well-contested game at L.T. Smith Stadium this Thursday in this spotlight nationally televised contest. After some rocky moments to open the season, both teams have their conference opener, and it’s time for things to normalize for both teams, in which case I think we see Reed using his weapons to good effect on a Middle Tennessee secondary that might be up against it this week. It wouldn’t be too shocking if Vattiato and Company kept pace with their weapons, but I see Reed airing it out well this week to get the win and cover at home for the Hilltoppers.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus 4.5 points. Bet your Week 5 college football predictions for FREE by scoring a 100% bonus at one of our top tier sportsbooks using our sportsbook promo codes!