Michigan vs. Washington: Expert CFB Picks and Best Bets for Saturday

Michigan Wolverines (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS) at Washington Huskies (3-2, 2-3)

When: 7:30 pm ET Saturday, Oct. 5

Where: Husky Stadium

TV: NBC

CFB betting odds: Mich +3 / Wash -3

Money line: Mich +125 / Wash -145

Over/under: 41

It’s a rematch of last year’s national championship game when Michigan heads West to take on Washington Saturday evening in Seattle.

These teams reached college football’s Biggest Game last season – won by Michigan 34-13 – then lost most of the people that got them there, including their head coaches. So both teams began this season as big question marks.

These teams used to meet in big games like the Rose Bowl; now they’re Big 10 Conference rivals. Which makes no sense. But we’ll watch anyway.

The Line

The CFB Week 6 betting market opened in Washington at -3 on Saturday, with an O/U of right around 40.5. Both numbers were holding steady in early betting action.

Michigan Betting Preview

The Wolverines are 4-1 on the season after holding off Minnesota last Saturday 27-24. Michigan controlled most of that game and led the Gophers 24-3 through three quarters. But the Wolverines allowed Minnesota to rally within three points with just under two minutes to go, then had to rely on an iffy off-sides call on an on-side kick to avoid giving the Gophers one last chance.

And in blowing most of that 21-point lead Michigan blew the cover at -10.5.

The Wolverines actually got out-gained by Minnesota 296-241 but won the ground battle 155-38 and turned two short fields, one compliment of a fumble recovery, the other a blocked punt, into touchdowns.

Michigan opened this season with a 30-10 victory over Fresno State, but that game was closer than that final score might indicate. The Wolverines then lost soundly at home to Texas 31-12, then beat Arkansas State 28-18 but came up short ATS at -21. Michigan then defeated USC 27-24 in a game somewhat similar to last week’s; the Wolverines out-played the Trojans for almost three quarters, allowed USC to rally late, but then drove to a game-winning score with less than a minute to go.

Michigan beat Washington to win the national championship last January, then suffered severe personnel losses over the off-season. The Wolverines went off this season playing against a wins O/U of 8.5 and we backed the under on that bet. They’re at four wins now, but they’ve got some interesting games coming up after this one, including at Illinois, at home against Oregon, at Indiana, and at Ohio State.

Washington Betting Preview

Meanwhile the Huskies are 3-2 on the season after falling at Rutgers last Saturday 21-18. Washington trailed the Scarlet Knights 21-10 late, got back to within one score with just under two minutes left, and got the ball back but missed a long field goal at the buzzer.

The Huskies out-gained the Knights 521-299 but missed three field goals, although that last one came from 55 yards. U-Dub also came up empty on a 1st-and-goal from the Rutgers 7-yard line and got a bit jipped on a penalty following a blocked field goal, leading directly to a Knights touchdown.

In other words, Washington probably should have won that game.

The Huskies opened this season with a 35-3 win over Weber State (FCS), covering at -29.5. Washington then beat Eastern Michigan 30-9 but then got upset by rival Washington State 24-19. The Huskies bounced back to beat Northwestern 24-5 but then lost to Rutgers. So U-Dub appears to be riding that college football roller coaster at the moment, up one week and down the next.

Washington made it all the way to the national championship game last season, then also experienced massive personnel losses. The Huskies are playing against a wins O/U of 6.5 this season, and they’ve also got a bunch of interesting games coming up, including at Iowa, at Indiana, at home against USC, at Penn State, and at Oregon.

Michigan-Washington History

These two programs, who split four Rose Bowls back when the Rose Bowl meant something, just met again in last season’s national title tilt, the Wolverines beating the Huskies 34-13. But as mentioned above there ain’t a lot of key guys left from that game.

Totals Report

Overs are 3-2 in Michigan games this season, which are averaging 46 total points.

Unders are 5-0 in Washington games, which are averaging 38 points.

Free College Football Pick

We give Washington our handicapping check-mark in the quarterback comparison, but Michigan owns the better running game and defense. The Wolverines have played a couple of different guys at QB so far this season, one a passer, the other a better runner, and they’ll probably go with the better runner again this week. Michigan only threw for 32 yards against USC and 86 against Minnesota but won both games. The Wolverines also only threw for 140 when they beat the Huskies last January. Yeah, we got a futures bet on the Michigan under, but that doesn’t mean we can’t back ‘em Saturday. We like the Wolverines for the win on the money line.