Michigan State vs Minnesota: Betting Guide, Picks & Analysis

The Michigan State Spartans and Minnesota Golden Gophers matchup in a Big Ten showdown at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN. The over/under for this matchup is currently 40.5, while Minnesota is favored by -7.

Michigan State Spartans (2-5 SU, ATS 2-3-1) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-3 SU, ATS 2-4)
Date: Saturday, October 28th
Location: Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
TV: BTN
Point Spread: Michigan State +7/Minnesota -7
Money Line: Michigan State +220/Minnesota -282
Over/Under: 40.5

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The last time Minnesota and Michigan State faced off came last year, ending in a 34-7 win for Minnesota. Offensively, Minnesota ran for 240 yards and put up 268 in the passing game. On the other side, Michigan State ended the game with 240 yards of offense.

Michigan State Spartans Recent Form:

Carrying an overall record of 2-5, Michigan State is ready to take on this game. However, their most recent contest ended in disappointment as they fell to Michigan with a final score of 49-0.

Not only did Michigan State lose straight-up in this matchup, but they also lost vs. the spread as 25-point underdogs. Combining for 49 points, the teams exceeded the line of 46.5 points.

Against Michigan, Katin Houser threw for 101 yards against Michigan, but did throw a touchdown pass. Overall, his passer rating was 47.73 with a completion percentage of 54.5%.

Nate Carter was the primary rusher for Michigan State vs. Michigan, with 36 rushing yards, carrying the ball 17 times. Unfortunately, he didn’t manage to score a rushing touchdown in the game. Leading Michigan State in receiving against Michigan was Maliq Carr. Although he didn’t catch a touchdown pass, he finished with 32 yards on two receptions.

Defensively, Michigan State allowed a total of 477 yards to Michigan. This includes giving up 120 yards allowed on the ground and 357 passing yards. This season, the Spartans’ defense has yielded an average of 119.9 rushing yards, earning them a rank of 162nd. Opponents have an average of 238.9 passing yards, with opposing quarterbacks attaining a passer rating of 91.4 when facing Michigan State. They are currently 40th in points allowed in NCAA rankings.

Away Injury Report

Minnesota Golden Gophers Recent Form:

Minnesota’s 12-10 win over Iowa moved their record to 4-3 as they head into this week’s matchup with Michigan State.

Minnesota was the underdog at +3.5, giving them an ATS and straight-up win. The under hit in the game with the over/under line set at 30.5 points.

Athan Kaliakmanis finished with 126 yards against Iowa while going 10 for 25 for a completion percentage of 40.0%. He ended the game without a rushing or passing touchdown.

Against Iowa, Darius Taylor carried the ball 16 times, leading the team with 59 yards in rushing. However, he was unable to score a touchdown on the ground. For the game, Daniel Jackson hauled in seven receptions for a total of 101 yards which led the team.

Against Iowa, the Golden Gophers defense was excellent against Iowa, giving up just 10 points on 127 yards allowed. Iowa’s passing game finished with 116 yards. Up-front, Minnesota gave up 0.4 yards per attempt. Ranked 122nd in passing yards allowed per game, Minnesota’s defense gets ready to take on Michigan State. Opponents have attempted an average of 29.4 passes per game against the Golden Gophers. They’re allowing 24.3 points per contest, placing them 82nd in college football. Their rush defense ranks 46th in the NCAA.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Michigan State is 1-0-2 ATS in their last road games.
• At home, Minnesota has gone 1-2 against the spread (last three).
• In the five most recent times they were the underdog, Minnesota has put together an ATS record of 2-3.
• Michigan State is 7-3 in their last ten games as the favorite.

Free Pick

I like the total here. Both teams have underwhelming offenses, with Michigan State averaging only 14.5 points per game and Minnesota at 20.3. Conversely, their defenses are more competent, suggesting we might see more stalled drives than scoring sprees.

In terms of red zone performance, Minnesota has a strong track record this season. However, they’ll be going up against a Michigan State defense that’s been stingy in the red zone, potentially neutralizing Minnesota’s usual effectiveness.

Lastly, Minnesota’s run-heavy offensive approach will likely consume significant clock time, reducing the number of overall possessions and opportunities to score for both teams. So, with these factors in mind, the under seems to be a prudent wager.