Michigan State Spartans vs Penn State Nittany Lions

Michigan State Spartans (5-6 SU, ATS 5-6-0) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-2 SU, ATS 8-3-0)
Date: Saturday, November 26th
Location: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
TV: FS1
Point Spread: Spartans +18.5/Nittany Lions -18.5 (BAS – Allows you to bet games at -105 odds!)
Money Line: Spartans +693/Nittany Lions -1219
Over/Under: 54.5

RECENT FORM

The Spartans come into the game with an overall record of 5-6. This includes going 3-5 in Big Ten action. This season, the Spartans have been favored in 4 games while posting an ATS mark of 5-6-0. Their average over-under betting line is 52.27 leading to an over-under record of 5-6-0.

The Spartans head into the game coming off a 39-31 loss vs. Indiana. With the defeat, Michigan State also added an ATS loss to their resume. The team finished the game by throwing for two touchdown passes. Overall, the Spartans had 298 passing yards on a completion percentage of 64.3%. The team ended the game with two rushing touchdowns, along with a total of 242 yards on the ground.

So far, quarterback Payton Thorne has a passer rating of 89.9 while completing 218 of his 344 attempts. Currently, he has a total of 2450 passing yards. Keon Coleman leads the team’s receiving corps with 50 catches for a total of 707 yards. The Spartans have turned to running back Jalen Berger a total of 141 times for a total of 669 rushing yards.

The Nittany Lions come into the game with an overall record of 9-2. This strong play includes going 6-2 in Big Ten action. This season, the Nittany Lions have been favored in 9 games while posting an ATS mark of 8-3-0. Their average over-under betting line is 51.95 leading to an over-under record of 8-3-0.

In their previous game, the Nittany Lions picked up a 55-10 home win over Rutgers. This was an impressive victory as they were also the 19.0-point underdogs. The team finished the game by throwing for one touchdown pass. Overall, the Nittany Lions had 199 passing yards on a completion percentage of 61.1%. The team ended the game with three rushing touchdowns, along with a total of 237 yards on the ground.

Quarterback Sean Clifford comes in the game having completed 191 of 306 passes for a passer rating of 96.05. Receiver Parker Washington heads into the game, as the team’s leader in receiving yards, with a total of 611. The team’s injury report lists him as questionable (Undisclosed). In the run game, Nicholas Singleton has accumulated 854 yards on 131 attempts to lead the team.

BETTING TRENDS

Through their last ten matchups, Michigan State has gone 4-6-0 straight up and 4-6-0 vs. the spread. The team averaged 24.2 points in these games while allowing 28.1. Their last ten over-under record is 5-5-0.

Through their last five road games, Michigan State, has an ATS record of just 2-3-0. However, their overall record was 1-4-0 while averaging 15.6 points per game.

Over the Nittany Lions last ten games, they have a strong record of 8-2-0 while also going 7-3-0 against the spread. On offense, the team averaged 36.0 points per game while allowing 16.9. Their over-under mark (last 10) is 7-3-0.

When looking at their past five home matchups, Penn State has an ATS record of 3-2-0 while averaging 31.2 per game. The team went 4-1-0 overall in these games.

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KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Spartans will look to improve their offensive output, as they are ranked just 85th in the NCAA in points scored. This week, the team has a tough matchup against a Penn State defense that allows an average of 18.18 points per game and has had problems getting off the field on third down.

If they are going to move the ball through the air this week, they will need to do so against a Penn State defense that is 47th in sacks per game.

So far, the Michigan State offense is averaging just 121.0 yards per game on the ground. This production has come on an average of 30.55 rush attempts per game (120th). This week, the Spartans will be facing a Penn State defense that is ranked 28th in rush yards allowed per game. For the season, they are averaging 104.57 yards per game when facing top 25 rush defenses.

So far, the Nittany Lions are averaging 35.91 points per game on offense, which is good for 19th most in college football, and have a good opportunity to add to these numbers against a Michigan State defense that is allowing an average of 26.73 points per game and has had its problems getting off the field on third down.

Although the Nittany Lions have turned to the passing attack at a below-average rate this season, they have an opportunity to find success through the air vs. a Michigan State defense allowing teams to complete passes at a rate of 52.67%.

This season, Penn State is averaging 37.55 rush attempts per game. With their limited opportunities, they have an average of 184.09 yards per contest, good for 45th in the NCAA. This week, the Nittany Lions will be facing a Michigan State defense that is ranked 135th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they are averaging 205.12 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

The Nittany Lions will look to once again play well defensively, as they are currently 14th in points allowed at 18.18 points per game allowed.

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