Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes Pick & Predictions

Michigan State Spartans (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) at Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1, 2-2), 9/30/23

When: 7:30 pm ET Saturday, Sept. 30

Where: Kinnick Stadium

TV: NBC

Point spread: Mich St +11.5/Iowa -11.5 (Did you know Wagerweb offers 20 point CFB teasers?)

Money line: MSU +350/IA -465

Over/under: 36.5

A couple of teams coming off poor performances last week look to rebound when Iowa hosts Michigan State for a Big 10 cross-division match-up Saturday night at Kinnick Stadium.

The Hawkeyes are trying to recover after getting punked at Penn State last Saturday while the Spartans are just trying to slog through the mess that is their head coaching situation.

Who do we like for our free MSU/Iowa pick?

NCAAF Betting Odds

This week’s college football betting market opened Iowa at -11.5 over Michigan State, with an over/under of right around 36. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Michigan State Betting Preview

The Spartans are 2-2 on the season after losing at home to Maryland last Saturday 31-9. Michigan State gave up the first 21 points of the game and trailed 21-3 at the half. The Spartans pulled to within 21-9 late in the third quarter but faded from there and whiffed ATS as seven-point home dogs.

MSU actually out-gained the Terrapins 376-362 but turned the ball over three times inside Maryland territory, including once on downs from the Terps 1-yard line.

The Spartans opened this season with wins over Central Michigan and Richmond (FCS), then lost Coach Tucker to suspension/firing. Michigan State then got bombed at home by Washington 41-7, giving up 713 yards of Huskies offense, before the loss to Maryland.

So MSU isn’t exactly trending in a good direction at the moment.

Iowa Betting Preview

The Hawkeyes are 3-1 on the season after getting shut out at Penn State last Saturday 31-0. Iowa fumbled the ball away on its best scoring opportunity of the game in the first quarter and trailed 10-0 at the half. The Hawkeyes proceeded to produce absolutely nothing offensively from there and eventually let the game get away, whiffing ATS at +14.

Iowa got out-gained by the Nittany Lions 397-76, made just four first downs, gained just 20 yards on the ground, gave up 215, turned the ball over four times and lost time of possession by a 45:15 split.

Yikes.

The Hawkeyes opened this season with a 24-14 win over Utah State but came up short ATS at -24. Iowa then won at Iowa State 20-13, covering at -3.5, then beat Western Michigan 41-10, covering at -28.

Michigan State-Iowa Recent History

The Spartans beat the Hawkeyes three times in a row from 2013-17 but Iowa won the most recent meeting three seasons ago 49-7.

College Football Betting Trends

Iowa is 5-10 ATS its last 15 games as a double-digit favorite.

Michigan State is 4-2 ATS its last six games as a double-digit dog.

Totals Report

The Under is 3-0 in Michigan State’s games this season vs. FBS opponents.

The Under is 3-1 in Iowa games.

Free College Football Betting Pick

Despite its showing last week Iowa is just the better team in this match-up, especially on defense, and should win this game. We expect a much sharper performance offensively – couldn’t get much worse – against a banged-up Michigan State defense. And while the spread on this game seems just a bit steep 17 points might cover it. We’re betting the Hawkeyes Saturday.