Michigan State Spartans at Illinois Fighting Illini Free Pick | November 16, 2024

Michigan State Spartans (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) at Illinois Fighting Illini (6-3, 5-3-1), 11/16/24
When: 2:30 pm ET Saturday, Nov. 16
Where: Memorial Stadium, Champaign
TV: FS1

Point Spread: MSU +3/Illi -3
Money line: MSU +125/Illi -150
Over/Under: 47.5

 
Michigan State searches for one of the two wins it still needs to become bowl-eligible when it takes on already-eligible Illinois on Saturday afternoon in Champaign.
 
The Spartans started 3-0 this season but are only 1-6 since. The Illini started 4-0 but are only 2-3 since. So somebody’s going to reverse a recent trend on Saturday.
 
But who?
 

The Line

 
The CFB betting market opened Illinois at -3.5 for Saturday, with an O/U of right around 48. Early betting action shaved the hook off that line.
 
According to Sagarin’s CFB ratings (Sagarin.com), the line on this game should be Illinois -8, which has us scratching our heads.

Michigan State Betting Preview

 
The Spartans are just 1-5 their last six times out after getting beat at home by Indiana two Saturdays ago 47-10. Michigan State then had last Saturday off.
 
MSU, a 7.5-point home dog against the Hoosiers, scored the first 10 points of the game. But the Spartans trailed 21-10 by halftime, and things just got worse from there.
 
Michigan State got out-gained by Indiana 385-193, registering -36 rushing yards!
 
Spartans QB Chiles left the game against the Hoosiers in the third quarter and did not return. But as of midweek, he’s listed as probable for Saturday.
 
Michigan State, its first under Coach Smith, started this season 3-0. The Spartans then lost three straight, although two of those came against Ohio State (38-7) and Oregon (31-10). MSU then knocked off Iowa 32-20 but lost to Michigan 24-17, then Indiana.
 
At 4-5 overall, the Spartans need two wins over their last three games – they finish with home dates against Purdue and Rutgers – to become bowl-eligible. But Michigan State also only needs one more win to play over its season wins O/U of 4.5.

Illinois Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Illini own a two-game losing skid after falling at home to Minnesota two Saturdays ago 25-17. Illinois then also had last Saturday off.
 
The Illini trailed most of the game against the Gophers, then took a 17-16 lead midway through the fourth quarter. Illinois then allowed Minnesota to drive 75 yards to a touchdown, later drove inside the Gophers red zone but fumbled its last chance away.
 
The Illini played Minnesota close all over the stat sheet but lost the turnover battle 2-0, which proved costly.
 
Also, Illinois has been out-gained and out-rushed by four of its last five opponents.
 
The Illini started 4-0 this season and later reached 6-1, the only loss coming at Penn State. But Illinois then lost to Oregon 38-9, then to the Gophers.
 
At 6-3 overall, the Illini are already bowl-eligible after missing out last season. They’ve also already played over their wins total of 5.5. And at 3-3 in conference play, Illinois retains a shot at a winning Big 10 record, which is rare for this program. But the Illini play their last two games on the road, at Rutgers, and at Northwestern, so they might want to win their home finale Saturday.
 
On the injury front, Illinois is without LB Rosiek, the team’s leading tackler, who suffered a broken leg two weeks ago.
 
These teams last met two seasons ago, a 23-15 Michigan State victory also at Champaign.
 

By the Numbers

 
Michigan State is averaging 346 YPG on offense this season and 118 on the ground. Defensively, the Spartans are holding opponents to 324 YPG, with 129 on the ground. This while playing what Sagarin ranks as the 12th-toughest schedule in college football.
 
Illinois averages 356 YPG and 142 rushing while allowing 366 YPG and 155 rushing. This while playing Sagarin’s No. 45 schedule.

Common Opponents

 
These teams have played two common opponents this season, Michigan and Oregon. Illinois played those foes to 1-1 SU and ATS but -145 YPG, Michigan State to 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS but only -65 YPG.
 

Totals Report

• The Under is 5-4 in Spartans games this season, which are averaging 44 total points.
• The Under is 7-2 in Illini games, which are averaging 47 points.

Free College Football Pick

 
These teams are very close and this game should play close, too. However, thanks to Illinois’ spotty run defense, Michigan State has a better chance of winning the ground battle. Also, the Spartans own the better performance – yardage-wise – against common opponents. Also, this one means a little more to Michigan State. And the Illini disappointed us with that performance against Minnesota. We like Sparty plus the points.

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