Michigan at Illinois Free Pick ATS | Week 8

Michigan Wolverines (4-2 SU, 1-5 ATS) at Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1, 4-1-1)

When: 3:30 pm ET Saturday, Oct. 19

Where: Memorial Stadium

TV: CBS

CFB betting odds: Mich -3/Ill +3

Money line: Big Blue -155/Fighting Illini +135

Over/under: 43

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Michigan and Illinois are both ranked heading into Saturday’s afternoon Big 10 bash in Champaign. But for the first time in our memory, the Illini are the higher-ranked outfit. And yet they’re still lined as home dogs against the visiting Wolverines.

Can Illinois pull the upset? Or does Michigan continue its mastery of the Illini?

The Line

The CFB Week 8 betting market opened Michigan at -2.5 over Illinois, with an O/U of right around 42. Early betting action edged that spread to -3 and bumped that total to 43.5.

According to Sagarin’s CFB ratings at Sagarin.com, the Wolverines should be favored at -2 for this match-up.

Michigan Betting Preview

The Wolverines are 4-2 on the season after falling at Washington two weeks ago 27-17. Michigan then had last week off.

The Wolverines, catching 1.5 points against the Huskies, fell down 14-0 early, then rallied to lead 17-14 through three quarters. But Michigan QB Jack Tuttle, playing in place of ineffective starter Alex Orji, committed two late and crucial turnovers, leading directly to 10 Washington points, and the game was lost.

The Wolverines got out-gained by the Huskies 489-287.

Two games ago, Michigan led Minnesota 24-3, then let the Gophers get within a field goal late before hanging on to win 27-24. Three games ago, the Wolverines led USC 14-0 early, fell down 24-20 late but drove to a touchdown in the last half-minute to win 27-24.

So Michigan’s been playing some close games as of late.

The defending national champion Wolverines, despite massive off-season personnel losses, were still expected to finish somewhere in the top four in the Big 10 this season. We thought those expectations a bit much, so we bet under 8.5 wins on Michigan. The Wolverines are off to a 2-1 conference start, but they’ve got some tough games yet to play, like at home against Oregon, at Indiana (which is 6-0 right now), and at Ohio State. Also, Michigan’s gotta go 5-1 from here to beat our bet, and we’re not feeling too bad about that.

Illinois Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Illini are 5-1 after outlasting Purdue last Saturday 50-49 in overtime. Illinois, favored at -22.5, led that game 27-3 early in the third quarter. But the Illini allowed the Boilermakers to score 40 points over the next 22 minutes and needed a late field goal just to force OT. Illinois then converted for seven points in the top of the overtime period, allowed a Boilers touchdown in the bottom but sacked the 2-point conversion to secure the W.

Illinois produced 556 yards of total offense last Saturday but gave up 536 yards of Purdue offense. And that’s to a team that scored a total of 16 points over its previous two games.

The Illini started 4-0 this season, with a win at Nebraska, which is 5-1 right now, before taking a 21-7 loss at Penn State. Illinois was expected to finish somewhere in the second division of the Big 10 this season, but it’s off to a 2-1 conference start. And the five wins already equal last season’s total. The Illini play at Oregon next week, but after that, they finish with four winnable games. Also, one more win puts them over their season O/U of 5.5.

Michigan-Illinois Recent History

The Wolverines own a six-game winning streak on the Illini, but they’re only 2-4 ATS over that span, favored by too much too often. Most recently, two seasons ago, Michigan scored the last nine points of the game to beat Illinois at the Big House 19-17 but came up way short ATS at -17.

Michigan at Illinois Betting Trends

Illinois is 6-2 ATS vs. ranked opponents under Coach Bielema.

Totals Report

The Over is 4-2 in Wolverines games this season, averaging 46 total points.

The Under is 4-2 in Illini games, averaging (without overtime) 48 points.

Free College Football Pick

Michigan’s played three guys now at QB this season, none of which have impressed. Meanwhile, Illinois’ Altmyer owns a 14/1 TD/INT ratio this season. So, the Illini will get our handicapping checkmark in the QB comparison. However, from there, the Wolverines own the better running game and the better defense, and that’s usually what matters most to us. If you’re giving up 49 points to Purdue, we’re concerned. Yea, we bet the under on Michigan for the season, but that doesn’t mean we can’t bet them in spots. We’re betting on the Wolverines on Saturday.

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