Miami Redhawks at Ohio Bobcats Pick 11/6/19

Miami Redhawks (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) at Ohio Bobcats (4-4, 2-6 ATS)
When: Wednesday, November 6, 8 p.m EDT
Where: Peden Stadium, Athens, Ohio
TV: ESPN2

Point Spread: M-OH +7/OHIO -7 (BetNow)
Total: O/U 54.5

Outlook For Week 11

This is essentially for the MAC Eastern Division title, because both schools already have a win over Buffalo and Kent State, and there’s no reason to believe that Bowling Green or Akron will give either squad much to worry about. So with both teams at 3-1 in the division, the winner of this game will essentially only need to beat the MAC’s two worst teams to clinch the division, making this a critical test.

It’s a test that will be decided by which defense can step up when it matters most, as neither of these teams are all that strong on that side of the ball. Given that both teams give up more yardage than they gain, this should be a high-scoring contest that could come down to who has the ball last.

How the Public is Betting the Miami-Ohio/Ohio Game

The Bobcats started as a 6.5-point favorite, but money coming in has pushed them up to 7. The total had yet to go on the board as of Sunday evening.

More Picks: Temple at South Florida Prediction 11/7/19

Injury Concerns

Miami-Ohio:
Tight end Andrew Homer is questionable with an arm injury.

Ohio:
Offensive lineman Stephen Hayes is questionable with an undisclosed injury. Wide receiver Jerome Buckner is questionable with a head injury and running back Julian Ross is questionable after missing last week’s game with a shoulder injury.

When Miami-Ohio Has the Ball

The name of the Redhawks’ signal caller should be familiar to most football fans, as it’s Brett Gabbert, the younger brother of Blaine Gabbert. Like his older brother, Brett Gabbert isn’t a great decision-maker, and the Redhawks’ offense has struggled as a result. Miami doesn’t have a strong passing or rushing attack, which is why Buffalo is the only FBS opponent that the Redhawks have broken 30 points against. There is hope that Tyre Shelton could be the backfield answer that Miami needs after he ran for 148 yards against Kent State, but considering that almost half of his season totals on the ground came in that one game, there’s no guarantee that it was because of him rather than the fact that the Golden Flashes have the third-worst run defense in the nation. Ohio’s run defense isn’t much better, ranking 109th, but Miami also played Western Michigan and didn’t make a dent in the Broncos’ 88th-ranked run defense. The feeling here is that it’s most likely because of Kent State’s issues than anything the Redhawks really did well last week.

When Ohio Has the Ball

Unlike the Redhawks, Ohio can move the ball well. The Bobcats boast a true double threat in Nathan Rourke, and in Frank Solich’s offense, having a quarterback who can move is five steps in the right direction. The Bobcats will run the ball regularly, and Miami doesn’t have much of a run defense that can stop Rourke or his backfield mates, O’Shaan Allison and De’Montre Tuggle. All three are threats to chew up yardage and score from just about anywhere on the field, and the Redhawks will have to be at their best to slow them down and have a chance to win. However, Rourke can beat teams with his arm as well as with his legs, making it tough for Miami to really plan for him.

Betting Trends

Frank Solich really doesn’t lose to Miami often. Since he took the reins in Athens, he’s 11-3 against Miami, and most of those haven’t really been close calls. The Bobcats did lose last year’s meeting, but Solich has never lost back-to-back games to the Redhawks, and neither return meeting after the previous two losses was particularly close. One other thing that Solich doesn’t do in this series is lose to Miami in Athens. Since he did so in his first year with the Bobcats, he’s won six straight at home over Miami.

However, it’s tough to trust the Bobcats in this spot. Ohio has failed to cover in any of its previous four contests, and Miami was a cover machine in November last season, winning all four of its games ATS. The Redhawks entering as the underdog isn’t a good thing, though: the favorite has covered three of the past five with one push.

For the total, you’d likely be wise to bet the under with these teams. It’s hit in eight of their past 10 meetings.

Weather Report

Wednesday will reach 57 degrees and no precipitation is expected on game day, but rain in the forecast on Tuesday could make for some wet conditions.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

It’s dangerous to pick a team that can’t stop the run, but Miami can’t really stop it either and Ohio has the better offense. The Bobcats can move the ball well and they’ve got experience in the backfield and on their coaching staff.

That makes a real big difference, especially in November football games in the Rust Belt. I think the Bobcats can keep things rolling here and all but secure a trip to Detroit for the MAC title game. Take Ohio.