Miami-Ohio vs. Ball State Predictions: Expert CFB Picks for Week 11

Miami-Ohio RedHawks (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. Ball State Cardinals (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 11

Date/Time: Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 8PM EST

Where: Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, Indiana

TV: ESPN

The MAC takes center stage on Tuesday, as the Miami-Ohio RedHawks come into Muncie for a Tuesday night conference showdown with the Ball State Cardinals. Both teams are in better conference standing than their respective won-loss records might indicate, making this an important game for both. Miami-Ohio is 3-1 in conference, looking for a win here that would have them still in contention for some big things. The RedHawks are really cruising now, coming off a 46-7 win over Central Michigan on the 26th. It was their third straight win after a rough 1-4 start. Ball State, meanwhile, also last played on the 26th, scoring a nice 25-23 win over Northern Illinois as nearly-two touchdown underdogs. What’s the move for this game?

Getting a Lay of the Land

Miami-Ohio head coach Chuck Martin, in his 11th season, had to expect some rough passages after all the player departures from his 11-win team of last season. And it really got off to a slow start with their only success through five games being an OT win over UMass. So, maybe it has come as a surprise to some how well they’ve performed in the last several weeks—laying waste to one conference opponent after the next. And despite the ramshackle start to the season, the ship has been steadied and conference foes expecting that same early-season version of the RedHawks will be spinning their wheels against this bunch.

Ball State’s trajectory hasn’t been totally dissimilar, as they’ve also gotten better over the course of the season, just in a much more muted way. Still, beating NIU as big dogs shows they’re coming around, as does their gutsy showing against Vandy the previous week, albeit in losing fashion. Also buoyed by a longtime coach in Mike Neu, the Cardinals look to start making a push for a bowl game. And if anything else, they’ve been pretty tough and a decent enough proposition from a betting standpoint, easily covering the spread in the last two weeks.

Issues for Miami-Ohio

It’s not the worst road assignment for the RedHawks, geographically close in a familiar conference setting, but the Cardinals are better in this stadium, with their best performances of the season coming here. They’re a unique team in some ways. One is that for a team that takes to the air quite a bit with a good quarterback in Kadin Semonza, their leading receivers are tight end Tanner Kaziol and RB Braedon Sloan. Kaziol is one of the best possession pass-catchers in the conference, and its aerial cast is deep and dangerous. Granted, Sloan and the rest of this Ball St. backfield don’t create the most menace on the ground, but at least they’re coming around some and the Semonza-led aerial attack makes life hard on opposing defenses.

This Miami-Ohio defense, however, has really kicked up things a notch in the last month. They weren’t really doing that badly earlier in the season, even with the offense not really chipping in and making life easy in any way for this “D.” But with 41 combined points allowed in their last three games, we see a RedHawks defense playing really well. And while they don’t make a lot of big plays and wins over Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan, which don’t carry a lot of weight, their defense still held up against Ohio, one of the better teams in the conference. Still, this home Ball State offense has some pep, and we might see Miami-Ohio’s defense get pushed a little here, handcuffed by their lack of big-play ability.

Matchup Issues for Ball State

It’s hard not to defer to the more complete Miami-Ohio offense. Led by Blaine’s younger brother, Brett Gabbert, this RedHawks offense can do a little of everything. With Cade McDonald, Javon Tracy, and Reggie Virgil, Gabbert has three productive targets he can wield on opposing defenses. But whereas Ball State struggles typically on the ground, Gabbert can lean on Keyon Mozee and Jordan Brunson, two backs that keep defenses on their toes. It’s nice to see Ball State get their act together on defense a little bit these last two weeks, giving up 24 and 23 points to Vanderbilt and NIU. That’s worth noting, and if they can reproduce that, they could conceivably keep a Miami-Ohio offense from getting untracked in a big way. But when looking at the series of defensive performances that led up to that, it’s not hard to imagine Miami-Ohio taking it to this defense in a big way. And like Miami-Ohio’s defense, the Ball State “D” isn’t very adept at making the kinds of big plays that can make up for what has been a lack of stoutness this season.

Take the Points

One has to be wary of the upsurge we’ve seen from the RedHawks in the second half of the season, as they now make a push to perhaps win this conference. A similar lens, however, reveals the same thing happening with Ball State, albeit at a more reduced rate. And sure, the idea of a one-dimensional Ball State offense dealing with an improving RedHawks defense should provide some consternation for potential Cardinals’ backers this week. I just suspect this being more of a grind where a big number might be hard to cover in what might be a halfway-competitive game. I’m taking Ball State and the points.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Ball State Cardinals plus 11.5 points.

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