Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) vs. Bowling Green Falcons
(2-7 SU, 5-4 ATS), Week 11 NCAA Football, 8:00 p.m. EST, Wednesday,
November 10, 2010, Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, Ohio, TV: ESPN2
by Badger of Predictem.com
Betting Odds: Mia (OH) -4/BG +4
Over/Under Total: OFF
The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks will try and get one step closer to bowl-
eligible when they travel across the state for a Mid-American
Conference battle with the Bowling Green Falcons in Perry Stadium on
ESPN2 Wednesday night.
But in order for the Redhawks to do that they will have to string
back-to-back wins together in MAC play for the first time this
season, since they won the last time they went out, 21-9, on the road
in Buffalo back on October 30th. With two wins still needed to get
eligible, and Akron and Temple remaining on the schedule, Miami
really needs to take care of business against Bowling Green on
Wednesday night in order to have any chance at the post season.
The Falcons may have had the turning point to their season last time
out, a 17-14 victory on the road at Central Michigan as large 13-
point underdogs (also Oct. 30th). The win was their first in MAC
play this season and helped the Falcons snap a five-game losing
streak, sparked by a defensive secondary that held the Chippewas to
just 132 yards passing in the upset.
With Toledo and Western Michigan still left on their schedule, this
game may be the best chance the Falcons have for getting another win
this season, and being an underdog at home on national television
might be enough motivation for Bowling Green to pull off a surprise.
The Miami Redhawks opened the game as 3.5-point favorites late on
Sunday at a few of the fastest offshore sportsbooks to release a line
this week, but by Monday afternoon most of the books taking action on
the game have moved it up to Miami minus -4 points.
The over/under total and moneyline bets have yet to be released as of
press time.
If youre a fan of the old-school grind it out offense of long ago
then youll probably want to turn the channel Wednesday night,
because both of these teams will throw a lot of those quick bubble
screens to the receiver instead of handing it off to an actual
running back. Miami and Bowling Green are the bottom two teams in the
MAC in rushing offense, in that order, with both barely averaging 62
yards on the ground per game.
Those lousy running numbers wouldnt matter much if both teams could
chuck it instead, but neither quarterback has been worthy of the play
calling thus far this season.
Miami sophomore Zac Dysert averages 242 yards a game (3rd in MAC) and
has over 2,100 yards already this season, but his 12-to-12 touchdown-
to-interception ratio and just 63.6 completion percentage is a big
reason why the Redhawks have struggled week-to-week and average just
19.4 points per game.
Bowling Green freshman Matt Schilz is 4th in the MAC in passing
(220.9 ypg) but has struggled in his first season at the helm, and
his 5-to-9 TD-to-INT rate is a large reason why the Falcons are just
2-7 this season. Schilz could get a weapon back in running back
Willie Geter this week, since Geter is listed as probable after
missing time with a bum ankle, which could be a big lift to the
dormant Falcon running game.
The lack of running has crushed these teams on third down too, with
Bowling Green (37.8 percent) holding a slight edge over Miami (33.9)
but with neither being all that good or efficient.
Defensively with guys like linebacker Dwayne Woods (leads MAC in
tackling at 10.9 per game) and defensive backs Robert Lorenzi and
Cameron Truss (both top 6 in passes defended) you would think the
Falcons would have the advantage, but they dont because up until
last weeks upset at Central Michigan the Falcons have given up an
average of 33.9 points per game. They also allow a 43.1 conversion
rate on 3rd-down on defense, which turns into a lot of defensive
snaps when the offense cant convert on their end.
Miamis defense allows 27.2 points per game, and is susceptible to
the pass (219.1 ypg), so lets just say theyre might not be a lot of
great defense played on Wednesday.
If youre a fan of playing the betting trends then youll probably be
playing the Miami Redhawks in this game. Not only are the Redhawks a
perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five visits to Perry Stadium, but they
are also a rock-solid 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings
overall, so they have their number right now.
The road team is also 5-1 ATS in the last six, so even more fuel for
the Redhawks fire.
Badgers Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I know the trends say Miami in this spot, but I just
dont think they are a good road team. Bowling Green will have enough
to stay in this game and maybe even win it outright. Im putting a
small wager on Bowling Green plus the 4-points.