Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green Spread Pick for Week 14

Miami (OH) RedHawks (7-4 SU, ATS 5-5)  vs Bowling Green Falcons (7-4 SU, ATS 5-5)
Date: 12:00 EST Friday, November 29th
Location: Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH
TV: ESNU
Point Spread: MU +2.5/BGSU -2.5
Money Line: MU +116/BGSU  -139
Over/Under: 42.5

ESNU will be covering the Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Bowling Green Falcons matchup, set to kick off at 12:00 ET from Doyt L. Perry Stadium in Bowling Green. Both teams come into this one with a 7-4 record this season. The over/under line is currently at 42.5 points, and the Falcons are -2.5 point favorites at home. The money line odds are +116 for Miami (OH) and -139 for Bowling Green.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Miami (OH) RedHawks and Bowling Green Falcons did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Miami (OH) RedHawks have a record of 3-0. The Miami (OH) RedHawks also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 57 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 0-3.

Miami (OH) RedHawks Recent Form:

Miami (OH) enters Week 14 against Bowling Green with a 7-4 record, already assured of bowl eligibility. They are 4-1 at home and 2-3 on the road this season. The RedHawks have a 23.2% chance of winning the Mid-American, according to projections.

They’ve been favored in six of their 11 games, going 6-0 in those matchups. Miami (OH) has a +6.1 average scoring margin and a 5-5 record against the spread this season.

Their over/under record stands at 4-5-1, with an average line of 45.1 points. This week’s line is set at 42.5 points, and their games have averaged 41.7 points per contest.

Heading into week 14, Miami (OH) ranks 77th in scoring, with 23.9 points per game, and we have them 95th in our offensive power rankings. Brett Gabbert has thrown for 2,355 yards, completing 57.1% of his passes, with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 91.

The RedHawks are 118th in third-down conversions, converting just 32.3% of their attempts. They average 137.3 rushing yards per game. Keyon Mozee leads the ground game with 937 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry. Reggie Virgil has 705 receiving yards and eight touchdowns on 33 catches.

Miami (OH) ‘s defense has been a strong point this season, ranking 13th nationally by allowing just 17.8 points per game. They’ve given up 137.2 rushing yards per game and 177.6 passing yards, which ranks 23rd in the country. Opposing quarterbacks have managed a passer rating of only 66.9 against Miami, the 11th-lowest in the nation, completing 55.4% of their passes.

In their recent game against Northern Illinois, Miami’s defense allowed just 9 points, giving up 242 total yards. They held Northern Illinois to 128 rushing yards on 40 attempts and 114 passing yards while also forcing one interception.

Away Injury Report

Bowling Green Falcons Recent Form:

Bowling Green enters Week 14 with a 7-4 record, facing Miami (OH) at home. They are 2-2 at home and 4-2 on the road this season. The Falcons have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible and a 36.2% chance of winning the Mid-American, according to projections.

Bowling Green has been favored in seven of their 11 games, going 5-2 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +8.5 points per game, and they are 5-5 against the spread this season.

The over/under line for this week is 42.5 points. Bowling Green’s games have averaged 47.6 points, with an average over/under line of 51.1 points. Their over/under record is 3-7, with games averaging 4.5 points below the line.

Bowling Green’s offense is averaging 28.1 points per game, ranking 53rd in the nation, and they sit 67th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 14. Connor Bazelak has thrown for 2,453 yards, leading the passing game, and the Falcons are 18th in completion percentage, connecting on 66.3% of their passes. Bazelak has 15 touchdowns and four interceptions, with a passer rating of 101.

Bowling Green ranks 43rd in passing completions, averaging 19.6 per game, and 66th in passing yards, with 225.9 yards per game. On the ground, they are 76th, rushing for 155 yards per game. Terion Stewart leads the rushing attack with 861 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has scored six touchdowns. Malcolm Johnson Jr. has 429 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

Bowling Green’s defense has been strong this season, ranking 19th nationally by allowing just 19.5 points per game. They also rank 19th in passing yards allowed, giving up only 174.6 yards per game through the air, with opposing quarterbacks completing 56.3% of their passes and posting a passer rating of 77.9.

In their recent 38-13 win over Ball State, Bowling Green’s defense gave up just 13 points and 254 total yards. They held Ball State to 43 rushing yards on 24 attempts and forced one interception.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past ten road matchups, Miami (OH) has an ATS record of 6-4 while averaging 20 per game. The team went 6-4 overall in these games.
• In their last ten games at home, the Bowling Green Falcons have a straight-up record of 7-3 while going 7-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 30 points per game in this stretch.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Miami (OH) RedHawks have a straight-up record of 0-3 and an ATS mark of 1-2.
• As the betting favorite, the Bowling Green Falcons have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 3-0.

Free Pick

Although Bowling Green doesn’t have a huge edge on either side of the ball, I do think that the Green Falcons are slightly better on both offense and defense. And, given that they are at home, I feel really good about taking them at -2.5. I’d recommend getting Bowling Green at -2.5 while you can, as I can see this one getting bet up as the week goes on. If so, I’d go all the way up to -3.5.

BAS Sportsbook -105 Odds!

BetAnySports is the perfect 5Dimes replacement, offering reduced juice with -105 odds on most markets. If you’re looking to get more value from your bets, this is the sportsbook for you. With the same great features you loved about 5Dimes, BetAnySports provides competitive lines, smooth navigation, and a wide range of betting options. Ready to step up your game? Join now and enjoy -105 odds… Read More