Miami (OH) at EMU Betting Analysis & Free Pick

NCAAF – Miami Ohio RedHawks at Eastern Michigan Eagles
Where: Rynearson Stadium (Ypsilanti, MI)
When: Saturday, October 12th at 2:00 PM EST
Watch: ESPN+

Betting Odds

Miami Ohio: -2.5
Over/Under: 46.5

A battle of the birds in the Mid-Atlantic Conference will take place as the Miami, Ohio, RedHawks will travel to Eastern Michigan to take on the Eagles. This weekend, football fans are in for an exciting matchup. Both teams have had a rollercoaster season, making this game crucial for the standings come season’s end. Miami, Ohio, best known for their defensive prowess, will be looking to capitalize on this advantage. Their defense has been a standout phase of their program, consistently proving they can shut down opponents and force turnovers. On the other hand, Eastern Michigan and its explosive offense will aim to exploit any weakness they can find. This clash promises to be a battle of strategies, with emphasis on the RedHawk defense versus the Eagle offense. Fans and onlookers can expect a high-energy game with plenty of action in all phases of the game. As both teams vie for a critical win, this game could have major implications in the final MAC standings. You won’t want to miss what should be a thrilling contest. Let’s take a look at both teams and evaluate who has the advantage in Saturday’s game.

Miami Ohio RedHawks

Miami Ohio enters the weekend with a 1-4 record through their first five weeks of play. They started their 2024 campaign on a three-game losing streak, facing notable foes in Northwestern, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame. Their lone win came in week four against UMass, who themselves have only mustered one win this year. UMass signaled the beginning of their MAC play as the RedHawks faced Toledo last week and ultimately fell 30-20 on the road.

Miami Ohio has a rather one-dimensional offense that features a much better passing game and an inability to pick up yardage on the ground. Behind QB Brett Gabbert, Miami OH averages 235.8 passing yards per game, but they are highly prone to turning the ball over. Gabbert has thrown seven interceptions in just five games and has only completed about 55% of his passes. When he does complete passes, Gabbert can spread the ball around to 4 different receivers, but his primary targets have been Cade McDonald and Javon Tracy, who have seen a combined 80 targets this year. The third leading receiver on the roster is actually running back Kevin Davis, who sees most of his work in primarily passing situations.

It was thought that Gabbert could add some dynamic play to this offense with his legs, but he has yielded negative 24 rushing yards on 30 carries. On the ground, the RedHawks showcase Keyon Mozee, who leads the team with 214 total yards. As a group, they have only scored one rushing TD, thus emphasizing their preference for the pass. If there is a bright spot for this 1-4 squad, it is their defensive unit. While the overall rankings are not stellar, they have enough talent to disrupt plays in the MAC. They hold opponents to just 202.6 passing yards per game and have intercepted opposing QBs twice. They do struggle to disrupt plays in the backfield and have averaged just a single sack per game. There is, of course, some bias in these stats since they have played three powerhouse programs, but even in their game against UMass, the defense did not force a single turnover and only had two half-sack plays. It will be interesting to see how the defense can evolve as they continue conference play.

Eastern Michigan Eagles

The other sideline will be occupied by the current MAC leader in Eastern Michigan. The Eagles are 4-1 to date and feature a much more well-rounded offense than that of the RedHawks. Eastern Michigan’s only loss on the year came on the road against Washington, a game in which they were 25.5-point underdogs. In the last three weeks, the Eagles offense has put over 30 points on the board, and they are currently averaging 32.4 points per game, which is good for 45th in the nation.

Their passing game is led by Cole Snyder, who focuses on protecting the ball rather than making risky throws. Snyder has yet to throw a pick through 5 games and has developed consistent connections with his receivers and tight ends. His primary target is Oran Singleton, who averages a first down on each catch and has scored twice. Wide receiver Terry Lockett is the number two option through the air and trails Singleton by just nine catches.

While the passing game is quite proficient, Eastern Michigan rushes at a much higher rate. They have three running backs who have 45+ rushing attempts on the season, but their bell cow is Delbert Mimms. Mimms has found his way across the goal line 5 times. Snyder, unlike Gabbert, can actually add some value with his legs, but he has yet to show that he can break a long run. They will use his mobility in shorter yardage situations, but it is enough to keep opposing defenses honest.

The Eagles’ defense can shut down the run with the best of them and has a unit ranked 57th in the country. Where they lack proficiency is against the pass, but they have been able to pick off opposing QBs on two separate occasions. The defense is great at disguising coverages and getting into the backfield, highlighted by their 14 total sacks on the year.

My Pick: Eastern Michigan +2.5 (-110)

There is something fishy about this line, but quite frankly, I don’t care. Eastern Michigan is a much better football team, and while they have not been tested to the extent that Miami, OH, has, they should be able to win this game outright on their home field. The Miami, OH, offense may see an uptick in their ability to score, but their inability to keep the ball secure will come back to haunt them. Eastern Michigan will be able to run the ball effectively and time their pass plays in a strategic manner that allows them to come out on top.

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