Miami at Louisville Betting Analysis & Free Pick | October 19

Miami Hurricanes (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) at Louisville Cardinals (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday, October 19th, 2024, noon ET
Where: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY
TV: ABC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Mia (Fla.) -3.5/Lou +3.5
Moneyline: Mia (Fla.) -190/Lou +160
Total: 61

The Miami Hurricanes continue their march toward the College Football Playoff when they hit the ACC road to take on Louisville Saturday afternoon at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, formerly known as Cardinal Stadium.

Miami, led by a Heisman-candidate quarterback, is perfect halfway through the regular season. But there have been a couple of close calls along the way.

Meanwhile, Louisville also hoped to contend for a spot in the ACC championship game this season, but one more conference loss might be too much to overcome.

The Line

The CFB Week 8 betting market opened Miami at -4.5 for Saturday with an O/U of around 60. Early betting action has dipped that spread to 3.5 points.

According to Sagarin’s CFB ratings, the line on this game should only be two points, suggesting potential value in Louisville.

Miami Betting Preview

The Hurricanes are 6-0 on the season after coming from way behind to win at Cal two weeks ago, 39-38. Miami then enjoyed a bye last week.

The ‘Canes, favored by 10 points over the Golden Bears, trailed 35-10 late in the third quarter. But Miami scored touchdowns on its last four possessions, the final one with just 26 seconds left, to steal victory from the jaws of defeat.

However, the Hurricanes failed to cover that spread.

Miami eventually racked up 575 yards of offense on Cal, playing in comeback mode, as QB Cam Ward added to his Heisman resume with 437 passing yards and three total touchdowns.

Two games ago, the Hurricanes trailed Virginia Tech 34-24 midway through the fourth quarter but rallied with two touchdowns to win 38-34. Three games ago, Miami trailed South Florida late into the second quarter before pulling away to win 50-15.

The ‘Canes are serious contenders for the ACC championship and are 2-0 in conference play so far. However, they’ve trailed in the fourth quarter in their last two games.

Louisville Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Louisville Cardinals are 4-2 on the season after winning at Virginia last Saturday, 24-20. Louisville, favored by seven points, led the Cavaliers 17-7 before falling behind 20-17 in the fourth. But they rallied late to secure the win with a game-winning touchdown drive.

Louisville actually got out-gained by Virginia, 449-408, and lost the time of possession battle 35:25. They just managed to win the game.

The Cardinals started 3-0 this season before dropping back-to-back tough games against Notre Dame and SMU. They bounced back with the win against Virginia, but they’ve been involved in close games lately.

These teams have split four meetings since becoming ACC rivals a decade ago. Last season, Louisville won a thrilling game in Miami, 38-31.

Totals Report

• Overs are 5-0-1 in Hurricanes games this season, averaging 67 total points per game.
• Overs are 4-2 in Cardinals games, which have averaged 56 points per game.
• Overs are 3-0 in the last three meetings between Miami and Louisville.

Free College Football Pick

Miami is 6-0 but living dangerously by falling behind in games and needing late comebacks. The Hurricanes own some better statistics than Louisville, but they’ve also played a lighter schedule. Additionally, Sagarin’s ratings suggest the line is slightly inflated. In a game that could come down to a late kick, taking the 3.5 points with Louisville seems like the right call. We’re betting the Cardinals on Saturday.

Zman’s Pick: Take Louisville +3.5

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