Memphis vs. Florida State Predictions: Can the Seminoles Bounce Back?

NCAAF Week 3 – Memphis Tigers at Florida State Seminoles
Where: Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium (Tallahassee, FL)
When: Saturday, September 14th at 12:00 PM EST
Watch: ESPN

Betting Odds

Spread: Mem +6.5/FSU -6.5 (Bet at -105 odds at BAS!)
Over/Under: 52.0

The Memphis Tigers and Florida State Seminoles are poised to square off this Saturday down in Tallahassee in a battle of AAC vs. ACC. Prior to the season, this game was probably not circled on the schedule by most, but Memphis (2-0) and Florida State (0-2) have disrupted the college football landscape with their play through their first two games, albeit for very different reasons. This game has now become a must watch to see if Memphis can continue their rise and if Florida State can put the pieces back together before it all comes crashing down. It should be a beautiful gameday in sunny Florida in what I expect to be a back-and-forth affair. Momentum and pride will be central dynamics in this contest, but the edge may not go to the team who simply wants it more. Limiting turnovers and sustaining drives will be the focus of both programs as a win or loss for either could be season altering. Let’s take a closer look at how both schools have faired so far and see who I’m giving the advantage to on the gridiron Saturday.

Memphis comes into this one with all of the momentum. Their favorable early schedule has allowed them to roll past the likes of North Alabama and Troy, neither of which have amassed a single win in 2024. While things will certainly get tougher for them this week the Tigers have been able to get some much-needed game reps in to assess their proficiency. Memphis boasts a pretty balanced offense that slightly favors the pass over the run. Regardless of which ball-moving method they choose to rely on, Memphis has shown the ability to score points at will, averaging 39.0 points per game. They have been highly efficient on 3rd downs and convert 52.6% of the time, which ranks them 29th in the country. The Tigers are led on offense by pocket-passer Seth Henigan, who has thrown three touchdowns on the season, all to tight ends. On the ground, Mario Anderson (built like a bowling ball at 5’9”, 208 lbs) has averaged 85.5 yards per game and found the endzone four times already. Top receivers Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee have been a steady presence to help Memphis march downfield. Defensively, this squad is also well-balanced and ranks in the top 50 in both passing and rushing yards allowed per game, although they have yet to be tested.

Through the first two weeks of the 2024 college football season, the performance of the Florida State Seminoles has been a major storyline, and not in a good way. A year removed from a playoff snub, many thought that these Seminoles would have a major chip on their shoulders and use it to prove to the country that they were wrongfully excluded. What many did not realize is that many of last year’s key pieces on both offense and defense have moved on to either the NFL or other college programs, taking much of that motivation with them. Head coach Mike Norvell quickly took to the transfer portal with the hopes of filling the gaps and bringing in an unprecedented 15 transfers who have taken on key roles for the Seminoles this year. After dropping their opener to Georgia Tech, Florida State fell at the hands of Boston College. Most notable of the transfers is journeyman dual-threat quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei, who replaces Jordan Travis as the starter. Uiagalelei has not played well so far, and his passing accuracy has been abysmal, with just a 58% completion rate. He also has not lived up to his dual-threat nature and has only accounted for 2, yes 2, yards on 14 carries. Running back Roydell Williams has not fared much better to date, averaging only 3.2 yards per carry and 1 rushing touchdown. Wide receivers Ja’Khi Douglas and Malik Benson have been the most reliable pass-catchers in this unit so far, but neither have eclipsed more than four catches in either of their previous matchups. Florida State has been porous defending the run and currently ranks 227th while allowing 226.5 yards per game. Their pass defense has been a lone bright spot, and they have yet to allow an opposing quarterback to throw for 150 yards.

My Pick: Florida State -6.5 (-110)

Call me crazy for liking the Florida State Seminoles after their previous two performances, but I believe there is still time to turn things around, and this is a great spot at home to get started. In their games against Georgia Tech and Boston College, Florida State was unable to handle the quarterback run, which kept the defense on the field and the game clock controlled by their opponents. Memphis QB Seth Henigan rarely leaves the pocket and will not present much of a scrambling threat at all. This should allow the Seminoles to stack the box and make the Tigers’ offense one-dimensional. Pass coverage is a strength of this Florida State team, and I expect them to be able to prevent any big plays over the top. D.J. Uiagalelei will need to perform at a much higher level and show that he is capable of playing Power-5 football. Memphis has not seen the speed and agility that the Seminoles possess on offense, so look for the receivers to find themselves open often. This is a spot where the line is way too low, and all the value is with the Seminoles.