Maryland Terrapins vs Northwestern Wildcats: Expert Betting Pick and Analysis

Maryland Terrapins (5-2 SU, ATS 3-3) vs Northwestern Wildcats (3-4 SU, ATS 2-3)
Date: Saturday, October 28th
Location: Ryan Field, Evanston, IL
TV: BTN
Point Spread: Maryland -13.5/Northwestern +13.5
Money Line: Maryland -567/Northwestern +405
Over/Under: 48.5

The Maryland Terrapins and Northwestern Wildcats matchup in a Big Ten showdown at Ryan Field in Evanston, IL. The over/under for this matchup is currently 48.5 while Maryland is favored by -13.5.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Maryland currently holds the bragging rights over Northwestern as in their most recent head-to-head matchup, they won 31-24. Each team’s offense struggled in the passing game. Maryland finished with just 166 passing yards, while Northwestern ended the game with 143. In terms of overall yardage, Northwestern ended with 358 and Maryland at 423.

Maryland Terrapins Recent Form:

Maryland’s recent loss to Illinois brought their overall record down to 5-2. In the game, the Terrapins suffered a 27-24 defeat.

The pre-game over/under line for this matchup was 51.5 points, which the teams fell short of. Maryland not only lost straight-up but didn’t cover the spread as 13.5-point favorites.

In the loss against Illinois, quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa achieved a QB rating of 105.29, completing 27 of 39 passes for 266 yards. Additionally, he contributed two touchdowns to the game.

Roman Hemby carried the ball 12 times vs. Illinois and led the team with 70 yards on the ground and did not run for a touchdown in the game. The team’s leading receiver was Kaden Prather, who contributed one touchdown and caught six balls for 70 yards.

The Terrapins’ defense finished the game by giving up 323 total yards to Illinois. The team’s run defense allowed 223 yards rushing compared to 100 in the passing game. Defensively, the Terrapins entered the game with 21 sacks and ranked 1st in QB hurries. They’ve allowed 18.6 points per game thus far this season (59th). In terms of pass defense, they’re 93rd in the NCAA, giving up 226.4 passing yards per game. Against the run, Maryland has allowed 111 rushing yards per contest thus far.

Away Injury Report

Northwestern Wildcats Recent Form:

As Northwestern prepares to take on Maryland, they have a record of 3-4. The Wildcats most recently lost to Nebraska by a score of 17-9.

Going into the game, Northwestern was 11-point underdogs and despite the straight-up loss, they did cover the spread. The team’s combined 26 points was not enough to surpass the over/under line of 40.

In the loss against Nebraska, Brendan Sullivan threw for 176 yards on 12 of 23 passing. His overall passer rating was 59.33, and he did not throw or rush for a touchdown.

Anthony Tyus III was the primary rusher for Northwestern vs. Nebraska, with 63 rushing yards, carrying the ball six times. Unfortunately, he didn’t manage to score a rushing touchdown in the game. Northwestern’s most productive receiver in the game was Bryce Kirtz, who finished with 96 on three receptions.

On defense, Northwestern finished their game against Nebraska by giving up a total of 256 yards. Nebraska threw the ball 17 times for 85 vs. Northwestern. While on the ground, the Wildcats gave up 171 rushing yards. Northwestern’s defense ranks 90th in points allowed, with 25.9 points given up per game. Teams have been averaging 174.7 passing yards against them (27th nationally). On the ground, they’ve conceded 172.3 rushing yards, putting them 125th in college football.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Maryland’s five most recent games vs. the spread has seen them go 2-3 against the spread.
• At home, Northwestern has gone 1-2 against the spread (last three).
• In the ten most recent times they were the underdog, Northwestern has put together an ATS record of 4-6.
• Looking back on the last three times Maryland was favored, their ATS record was 2-1.

Free Pick

Maryland comes into this matchup favored by nearly two touchdowns, and I like them to cover. Maryland is coming off a bye, while Illinois is looking to bounce back from a late loss to Wisconsin. I see the Maryland offense having a big game on their way to covering.