Maryland Terrapins (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. Michigan State Spartans (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS)
NCAA Week 12
Date/Time: Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 4:00 P.M. ET
Where: Spartan Stadium
TV: Fox
by Jerbeek, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Mary +17.5/MSU -17.5
Over/Under Total: 47.5
The Maryland Terrapins travel to East Lansing to take on the Michigan State Spartans. The Terrapins have lost 5 of their last 6 games after a 3-1 start to the season. Maryland has had issues at QB as they have had 3 different players start at QB. The most recent starter, Max Bortenschlager has had difficulty staying healthy and is questionable for this game. If Bortenschlager is unable to go the Terrapins will to with Ryan Brand at QB. Brand started the Michigan game and struggled completing only 16 of 35 passes for 136 yards. Maryland has had success running the ball as they are averaging 4.6 yards per carry led by Ty Johnson who is averaging 6.5 yards per carry. D.J. Moore is the leading receiver with 857 yards and 8 touchdowns.
The Terrapin defense has been the problem this year as they are allowing 36.2 points per game. In the last 6 games they are giving up over 40 points per game. Overall the defense has allowed an average of 421 yards compared to the offense gaining 337 yards per game. Maryland is looking to gain to wins to become bowl eligible but that would seem unlikely with the 2 remaining opponents of Michigan State and Penn State.
Michigan State comes into this game as losers of their last 3 games after getting beat by Ohio State by a score of 48-3 last week. Their lone win in that stretch was an impressive win as they knocked off Penn State and eliminated them from the National playoff race. Michigan State has struggled on offense averaging only 22 points per game on the season. The Spartans have struggled to run the ball consistently and that really showed up last week against Ohio State as the Buckeyes limited them to 64 yards rushing and 1.9 yards per carry. In fact, the Spartans have not surpassed 100 yards rushing the past 4 games. On the flip side, QB Brian Lewerke has thrown for over 400 yards in 2 of the last 3 games although Ohio State did hold him to 131 yards on a 50% completion rate.
The Spartans defense has been very good when they win but has really struggled in the losses as they gave up 38 points in the loss to Notre Dame, 39 points in the loss to Northwestern and 48 points to Ohio State. In the 7 games they have won the defense has only given up an average of less than 15 points per game. The defense had a particularly tough time stopping the Buckeyes running game as they gave up 335 yards and 8.0 yards per carry. Penn State comes into this game with a high powered offense averaging 37.7 points per game.
Maryland entered the Big 10 conference in 2014 and since then has gone 1-2 against Michigan State with an average score of Michigan State 26 and Maryland 16. Michigan State has struggled in the role of favorite the past 3 years with a record of 8-16 against the spread when favored. Maryland has been involved in high scoring games this season as 8 of their 10 games have gone over the posted Vegas total.
Jerbeeks Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I look for the Michigan State offense to bounce back after the miserable performance last week against Ohio State. Sparty has had good success throwing the ball and I think they will find plenty of that good fortune this week against a soft Terrapin defense. I am calling for a Michigan State win of 35-21. My recommendation is to play over the total of 47.5 and hope that the Maryland defense continues to give up over 35 points. Not all sportsbooks are created equal! Many are fly by night, poorly run and your loot is actually at risk. End that problem today by signing up at one of the web’s oldest and most trusted sportsbooks! Online for over 15 years, your credit card will work and you’ll also receive a 50% bonus up to $250 FREE at Bovada Sportsbook!