Maryland Terrapins at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Analysis, Odds, and Picks

NCAAF – Maryland Terrapins at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Where: Huntington Bank Stadium (Minneapolis, MN)
When: Saturday, October 26th at 3:30 PM EST
Watch: Fox Sports 1

Betting Odds

• Minnesota Golden Gophers -4.5
• Over/Under: 46.5

Game Preview: Maryland Terrapins vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers

This Saturday, college football fans are in store for an exciting matchup as the Minnesota Golden Gophers will play host to the Maryland Terrapins in a Big 10 clash. This game promises to be a thrilling contest between two teams in the same conference looking to obtain a statement win as the season progresses. A massive contrast in play style will no doubt yield interesting results as both squads attempt to control the game in their own way. In a sense, both of these squads present major challenges for one another, and the winner will be determined by who wants the victory more. While these two teams know each other well, they have not played since 2021, and a lot has changed. With both Maryland and Minnesota on upward trajectories, a win this Saturday could build some serious momentum that will carry them through the regular season finale. Will it be the high-flying, energetic Terrapin offense that possesses the advantage, or will it be the hard-hitting, stout defensive play of the Golden Gophers that leads them to victory? Let’s see how these Big 10 foes stack up on paper before I give my pick.

Maryland Terrapins Team Analysis

The Maryland Terrapins enter this battle after winning their last game in dramatic fashion, beating USC at home. They currently boast a 4-3 record and are 14th in the Big 10 rankings. Maryland’s claim to fame this season has been their prolific offensive play, but it was actually their defense last week that held their own. All year, the Terrapins have been able to shut down their opponent’s run game and have averaged just 102.7 yards per game allowed on the ground, good for 26th in the country. They have been leaky against the pass, and their secondary has been consistently beat to the tune of nearly 270 yards per game and just over 385 yards per game. While the Maryland defense allows opponents to score nearly 25 points per game, they have the ability to stand firm on 3rd down opportunities and have held the opposition to just a 37.1% conversion rate. It will be interesting to see if they can build on their performance from a week ago, or if this will be the same old Maryland D that we’ve seen in the prior 6 weeks.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Terrapins love to let it fly. They average 313.3 passing yards per game and are currently ranked 15th in the nation in that category. Quarterback Billy Edwards has been slinging the ball relentlessly but also accurately. His main connection, Tai Felton, has been able to accumulate over 800 receiving yards on the season and has caught 6 of Edwards’ 13 touchdown passes while averaging over 114 yards per game. Billy Edwards can also spread the ball around to his other receivers and running backs, but since nobody has shown they can contain Felton, I expect his target share to continue to rise. Maryland’s rushing attack has been a mild component in their success, as they are only ranked 202nd in that area. They’ll use the run to set up the pass or in short-yardage situations but actually have three players averaging nearly 5 yards per carry. It will be a tough task for Minnesota to contain all this firepower.

Minnesota Golden Gophers Team Analysis

Minnesota comes into their home game with a two-game winning streak after taking care of UCLA on the road. Similar to Maryland, they possess a 4-3 record and are two spots ahead in the Big 10 rankings at 12th. Minnesota struggled in their Big 10 opener as they were outmanned by Iowa before nearly mounting a surprising comeback against Michigan. All season, they have relied on their defensive unit to carry them forward and are especially stingy against the pass. This Minnesota defense limits opponents to 139.6 passing yards per game and 275.4 total yards per game, which both rank 14th nationwide. While not as strong against the run, the Golden Gophers are only allowing 122.7 rushing yards per game and have held their own in red zone opportunities, keeping their opponents to a measly 15.9 points per game. Their pass defense may be slightly influenced by their games against Iowa and Michigan, but they have the playmakers in the secondary to ruin any offensive gameplan.

The Minnesota offense has been a bit more stagnant this year but has been effective at ball control and sustaining drives. They are firmly in the top 50 on 3rd down conversion percentage, converting at a 43.7% rate. They are quite balanced in pass vs. run opportunities but are slightly more effective through the air, which is not the norm for the Golden Gophers. Against a weak Maryland pass defense, they may rely more heavily on QB Max Brosmer to carry the load.

Prediction: Maryland Terrapins +4.5

Personally, I think that the passing offense of Maryland is going to be too much to handle for Minnesota. Their pass defense statistics are skewed by games against Iowa and Michigan, two teams who run the ball at will. In the game against Iowa, Minnesota only had to defend 19 pass attempts but were gutted for 272 rushing yards. I expect Maryland to jump out early and do not trust the Gopher offense to keep pace. Take the points here.

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