MACtion Betting Preview: Buffalo at EMU Total Pick

Buffalo Bulls (6-4 SU, ATS 3-4)  vs Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-5 SU, ATS 5-3)
Date: 7:00 EST Wednesday, November 20th
Location: Rynearson Stadium, Ypsilanti, MI
TV: ESNU
Point Spread: UB +2.5/EMU -2.5
Money Line: UB +116/EMU  -139
Over/Under: 54

Heading into this week 13 matchup, the Eastern Michigan Eagles are sitting at 5-5 on the season, and they are the -2.5 point favorites at home vs. the Buffalo Bulls. Kick-off is set for 7:00 ET from Rynearson Stadium in Ypsilanti, and ESNU will be handling the broadcast. The money line odds have the Eagles at -139 and the Bulls at +116, with the over/under line currently at 54 points.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Last season, the Buffalo Bulls and Eastern Michigan Eagles did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Eastern Michigan Eagles have the leg up at 2-1. Against the spread, each team went 1-2 and finished with an over/under mark of 1-2. These games averaged a combined 55 points per contest.

Buffalo Bulls Recent Form:

Buffalo enters Week 13 with a 6-4 record, ranked 118th in our power rankings. They have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible but only a 3% chance of winning the Mid-American. On the road, they are 1-3, while their home record stands at 2-1.

Buffalo’s ATS record is 3-4, with a 1-3 mark on the road and 2-1 at home. They’ve been favored in just one game this season, and their average scoring margin is -4 points per game.

The over/under line for this week is 54 points. Buffalo’s games have averaged 57.8 points, with their over/under record at 5-2. Their average over/under line this season has been 47.7 points.

Heading into week 13, Buffalo’s offense is averaging 26.9 points per game, placing them 58th in the nation. They are ranked 112th in our offensive power rankings. Their rushing game is their strength, with 160.8 yards per game on 37.5 attempts.

Al-Jay Henderson leads the team with 688 rushing yards, six touchdowns, and an average of 5 yards per carry. Quarterback C.J. Ogbonna has thrown for 1,791 yards, 13 touchdowns, and four interceptions. Buffalo ranks 111th in passing yards per game.

Buffalo’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 30.9 points per game. In their latest matchup, a 51-48 overtime win against Ball State, they gave up 48 points and 520 total yards, including 327 passing yards and four touchdowns, though they did manage one interception.

Opponents have averaged 262.6 passing yards per game against Buffalo, completing 63% of their throws. The defense has faced the 96th most passing attempts in the country and is also allowing 158.2 rushing yards per game.

Away Injury Report

Eastern Michigan Eagles Recent Form:

Eastern Michigan enters Week 13 against Buffalo with a 5-5 record, but they have a 0% chance of winning the Mid-American. However, they have a 73.7% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Eagles are 1-2 at home and 2-3 on the road this season.

They’ve been favored in three games, going 2-1 as the favorite, and have a +0.1 average scoring margin. Against the spread, Eastern Michigan is 5-3, with a 2-1 record at home and 3-2 on the road.

Their over/under record is 4-4, with an average line of 50.3 points. This week’s line is set at 54 points, while their games have averaged 54.5 points per contest.

Eastern Michigan’s offense is averaging 27.3 points per game heading into week 13, placing them 55th in the country. In our offensive power rankings, they are 111th. They rank 23rd in passing attempts, averaging 35.5 per game, and are 30th in completions, with 21.5 per game. They are 55th in passing yards, averaging 236.6 yards per game, and their third-down conversion rate is 40.4%.

Cole Snyder leads the team with 2,242 passing yards and a 60.1% completion rate. He has thrown 12 touchdowns and six interceptions, with a passer rating of 83. On the ground, Eastern Michigan averages 145.2 rushing yards per game. Delbert Mimms III has 629 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 4 yards per carry. Oran Singleton leads the receivers with 627 yards on 62 catches and has two touchdowns.

Eastern Michigan’s defense has allowed 27.2 points per game this season, including 35 points in their recent 35-10 loss to Ohio. They gave up 434 total yards, with 157 rushing yards on 31 attempts and 277 passing yards, though they did manage to force an interception.

Opponents have averaged 226.5 passing yards per game against Eastern Michigan, completing 62.6% of their throws. The Eagles rank 112th in the nation against the run, allowing 166.9 rushing yards per game on 33.8 attempts per contest.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Across the Buffalo Bulls’ last five road games, the team averaged 16 points per game while allowing 36. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 2-3 straight-up.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Eastern Michigan has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 24 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
• Going back to their last five games as the underdog, the Buffalo Bulls have a straight-up record of 2-3. But, their mark vs the spread was just 2-3.
• As the betting favorite, the Eastern Michigan Eagles have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 2-1.

Free Pick

Based on almost every metric, this is going to be a tight game. Most power rankings have these two teams as about as evenly matched as they come. Currently, the Eagles are favored by -2.5, given that they are at home. In that light, I’ve been looking at the over/under, and I think this is going to be a low-scoring game. The way I’m going to play Wednesday’s matchup is to take the under at 54 points.

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