MAC Title Game Pick: Expert Analysis and Predictions

Miami (OH) RedHawks (10-2 SU, ATS 8-3) vs Toledo Rockets (11-1 SU, ATS 5-6)

Date: 12:00 EST Saturday, December 2nd

Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: MU +8/U of T -8

Money Line: MU +246/U of T -315

Over/Under: 46.5

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Head-to-Head Matchup:

The previous three head-head to matchups have gone in favor of Miami (OH) with a record of 3-0. Miami (OH) and Toledo did not play last season. Miami (OH) also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 56 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 2-1.

Miami (OH) RedHawks Recent Form:

The Miami (OH) RedHawks are heading into this week’s game with a stellar record of 10-2. In their most recent game, they added a win to their record by taking down Ball State (17-15).

Miami (OH)’s straight-up win was not enough to cover the spread vs. Ball State, as the line going into the game was -4. On the over/under, the line was set at 34.5, resulting in a hit for the under.

In their previous game, quarterback Aveon Smith made 24 passing attempts against Ball State. He concluded the game with 170 passing yards, completing 58.3% of his passes. Additionally, he had two interceptions during the win.

Rashad Amos led the ground attack for Miami (OH) against Ball State. He accumulated 37 rushing yards and reached the endzone one time in 13 attempts. Leading Miami (OH) in receiving against Ball State was Javon Tracy. Although he didn’t catch a touchdown pass, he finished with 70 yards on six receptions.

On defense, Miami (OH) finished their game against Ball State by giving up a total of 366 yards. Ball State threw the ball 19 times for 91 vs. Miami (OH). While on the ground, the RedHawks gave up 275 rushing yards. This season, the RedHawks’ defense has allowed 132.2 rushing yards per game, ranking 163rd. Opponents average 190.9 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks have put together a passer rating of 77.2 against Miami (OH). They hold the 101st position in NCAA points allowed.

Away Injury Report

Toledo Rockets Recent Form:

The Toledo Rockets are heading into this week’s game with a record of 11-1. In their most recent game, they added a win to their record by taking down Central Michigan (32-17).

Looking at the point-spread for this game, Toledo covered as 10-point favorites. While on the over/under, the betting line was 54.5 at game time, resulting in a hit for the under.

Quarterback DeQuan Finn threw for one touchdown in Toledo’s win over Central Michigan. Overall, he had a passer rating of 89.58 while completing 52.9% of his passes for 97 yards.

Toledo’s leading rusher against Central Michigan was Peny Boone, who along with rushing for 186 yards, he found the endzone two times in his 21 attempts. Leading Toledo in receiving against Central Michigan was Junior Vandeross III. Although he didn’t catch a touchdown pass, he finished with 30 yards on three receptions.

Toledo’s defense gave up 335 yards of offense vs. Central Michigan. In the passing game, they allowed 231 yards, while on the ground, they gave up 104 yards. Defensively, the Rockets enter the game with 34 sacks and ranked 1st in QB hurries. They’ve allowed 20.4 points per game thus far this season (72nd). In terms of pass defense, they’re 39th in the NCAA, giving up 189.1 passing yards per game. Against the run, Toledo has allowed 142.9 rushing yards per contest thus far.

Home Injury Report

No Injuries Reported

Betting Trends

• Miami (OH)’s three most recent games vs. the spread has seen them go 2-1 against the spread.
• Toledo is 2-3 Against the spread in their last five games at home.
• Toledo’s ATS record in their ten most recent games as the underdog is 4-6.
• The previous ten time that Miami (OH) was favored, they are 8-2 against the spread.

Free Pick

Toledo’s the play here. Offensively, they’re a powerhouse, averaging 32 points (ranked 28th) against Miami’s 24.1 (79th). Defensively, they’re even more dominant, allowing just 16 points per game (7th), compared to Miami’s 22 (30th). Toledo’s yardage game is key – 421.5 yards per game (35th) dwarfs Miami’s 304.8 (118th). The clincher? Toledo’s efficiency on crucial downs – their 3rd and 4th down conversion rates are way ahead. Miami’s discipline and red zone stats are respectable, but they don’t offset Toledo’s clear statistical edge. Lay the points with Toledo.