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LSU vs. Texas A&M Betting Pick

by | Nov 24, 2018 | cfb

LSU QB Joe Borrow

No. 7 LSU Tigers (9-2 SU, 5-6 ATS) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 13
Date/Time: Saturday November 24th, 2018. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Kyle Field College Station, T.X.
TV: SECN

Point Spread:LSU +2.5/A&M -2.5
Over/Under Total: 47.5

Rivalry weekend will be capped off in the SEC this Saturday when the Texas A&M Aggies defend their home field against the no. 7 LSU Tigers at Kyle Field. The Aggies have had a solid year in Head Coach Jimbo Fisher’s debut season, and there is still anticipation that something bigger is building within the program. The Aggies could take a big step in the right direction if they could pull out a victory over LSU this weekend who remains the only division opponent that the Aggies have failed to beat since joining the SEC in 2012. Despite the Tigers 9-2 SU record and 7th place ranking in the polls, LSU will surprisingly be 2.5 point underdogs when they arrive at Kyle Field for this rivalry meeting.

Do the sportsbooks have the Texans overvalued verus the Titans?

Aggies surprising favorites over LSU

So why is a top 10 ranked team an underdog to an unranked opponent? Let’s face it, Vegas is not stupid, and these two teams are very evenly matched. Due to the fact the Aggies are at home, they probably deserve the slight edge in terms of the ideal betting line. On paper, LSU ranks 25th in total defense allowing 330 yards per game while the Aggies rank 29th allowing 343 yards per game. LSU has been much better-keeping opponents out of the end zone. While the Aggies are solid allowing just 22 points per game, LSU has been great allowing just 16.1 points per game which are among the top 10 scoring defenses in college football.

Possibly the most significant difference can be seen on the offensive side of the football. Despite the 9-2 record and defensive advantage, the Aggies hold the upper hand when it comes to consistent success on offense. The Tigers offensive woes have been well documented. Quarterback Joe Burrow is completing just 54% passing with only 9 touchdowns for the entire season. Additionally, LSU’s historically strong ground and pound has regressed. The Tigers still have a duo of talented running backs in Nick Brossette and Clyde Edwards-Helaire that are more than capable of having big games. However, neither back has produced the enormous numbers we have seen from a few of the LSU great tailbacks over the last few years.

Does Fisher’s offense give Aggies the advantage over LSU?

The biggest difference in the way these two teams match-up is that Texas A&M has been much better and more consistent on the offensive side of the football. One of the reasons is because the offense has an exceptional rusher in Trayveon Williams they can lean heavily on. Williams has been the workhorse with more than 1,300 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns this year while maintaining more than 6 yards per touch. Meanwhile, quarterback Kellen Mond is a playmaker with solid potential both in the passing and running game. Collectively, this Aggies offense will have a tough challenge against this LSU defense. The good news for the Aggies is that they have played several of the top defenses in college football namely Clemson, Alabama, and Mississippi State. In each game, the offense has found ways to move the football and compete.

LSU vs. Texas A&M betting trends and series history

As stated earlier, LSU has found a way to win every meeting with the Aggies since they joined the SEC in 2012 which has accumulated to 7 straight victories. Before the Aggies joined the SEC, this rivalry had a lot of gaps and noncontinuous meetings. Overall, LSU leads the all-time series 33-20-3 dating back to the first meeting all the way back in 1899. From a betting standpoint, the Aggies have been the bigger profit maker this season at 8-3 ATS. The Aggies are also perfect in their last 5 games at home going 5-0 ATS. However going back to the head to head history with LSU, the Aggies have failed to cover the mark in their last 5 meetings against the Tigers.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I think these teams match-up pretty evenly. I am not convinced LSU’s offensive problems are solved, and I think the home crowd/defense will make things tough. I like the Aggies -2.5

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