LSU Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels Total Pick

No. 13 LSU Tigers (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. No. 20 Ole Miss Rebels (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)

College Football Week 5

Date/Time: Saturday, September 30th, 2023, 6:30 PM (EST)

Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS.

TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: LSU -3/Miss +3 (Deposit $100 and get $100 FREE with code PREDICTEM at BetUS!)

Moneyline: Louisiana St. -130/Mississippi +100

Total: 63.5

The Ole Miss Rebels suffered their first defeat of the season last week at the hands of Alabama. Despite a promising opening drive in which the Rebels jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead, the offense succumbed to Alabama’s defense and was held to just 3 points for the remainder of the game in a 24-10 loss. This week Lane Kiffin’s offense looks to get back on track when they host the no. 13 LSU Tigers inside Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in a match-up to keep their SEC West hopes alive.

Despite losing the season opener to Florida State, the Tigers have won the last 3 games, including two consecutive victories over SEC opponents Mississippi State and Arkansas. At 2-0 in SEC play, LSU currently sits on top of the SEC West, along with Alabama and Texas A&M, as the only division teams that have been unbeaten in conference play. If LSU is going to challenge Alabama for the top spot in the SEC West like many are predicting, it makes this weekend’s road trip to Ole Miss very important for two teams that still have division title ambitions.

LSU Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels Betting Analysis

Before the Rebels’ offense was stifled against Alabama, I would have probably argued that the Rebels were playing as well as any team in the SEC. Dual-threat quarterback Jaxson Dart has played well, throwing for 1,100 yards with 7 touchdowns and 2 picks through 4 games. Dart also leads the Rebels with 219 rushing yards, slightly ahead of RB Quinshon Judkins. On the defensive side of the football, Ole Miss has shown considerable improvement with each year of the Kiffin era and has not allowed more than 24 points in a single game this season.

With those things considered, last week’s game against Alabama was a reminder that Ole Miss may have superior talent and speed; however, they still lack the physicality against some of the premier teams in the SEC. The LSU offense has that type of physicality on the offensive side of the football, where they run the ball often with QB Jayden Daniels and running backs Logan Diggs and Josh Williams. Daniels has also been playing incredibly in the passing game, hitting 72% of his passes for just less than 1,300 yards with 12 touchdowns and 2 picks. Needless to say, I’m expecting this LSU offense to make things very difficult for the Rebels’ defense because they have the size to bully Ole Miss upfront along with the talent to stretch the field vertically, especially with talented receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.

Based on the initial diagnosis which favors the LSU offense, I’m not ready to simply write off the Rebels’ chances either. Though they may lack some size in the trenches, the Rebels’ offense is still stacked with speed and talent at the skill positions. Furthermore, the LSU defense has been their weakest link this season as well. The Tigers have allowed 230 yards per game through the air this season against some mediocre passing offenses. LSU’s secondary was a position of need over the offseason, and it has been apparent that they are lingering concerns. Therefore, expect this to play into the hands of Ole Miss and the creative play calling of Head Coach Lane Kiffin.

Betting Trends

• LSU Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels Betting Trends
• LSU is 4-1 SU in the last 5 games.
• LSU has hit the over in each of the last 8 games.
• LSU is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 games against Ole Miss.
• LSU is also 6-1 SU in the last 7 games against Ole Miss.
• Ole Miss is 13-7 SU in the last 20 games.
• Ole Miss has hit the “under” in 4 of the last 6 games.
• Ole Miss is 16-2 SU in the last 18 games at home.
• Ole Miss has hit the “over” in 5 of the last 6 games against LSU.

LSU Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels Betting Prediction

As I alluded to above, I believe this match-up heavily favors the offenses, and it is not surprising to see the betting total posted at a lofty 63.5 points. However, I believe this is going to be an outright shootout and would not be surprised if this total gets into the upper 70s range. As a result, I’m taking my chances with the over!

Jay’s Pick: Take the over 63.5