LSU at Florida Free Pick & Analysis | November 16, 2024

Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Gainesville, FL)
When: Saturday, November 16th at 3:30 PM EST
Watch: ABC
Betting Odds: LSU -4.0, Over/Under 54.5

One of the more intriguing games of this Saturday’s college football slate will kick off at 3:30 EST as the LSU Tigers head to Gainesville, FL, to take on their SEC rivals, the Florida Gators. With both teams trending in the wrong direction as of late, this matchup is a must-win for both sides as they have their eyes now set on bowl eligibility and potentially an outside shot at the college football playoff. There really aren’t many things better than an SEC rivalry matchup, and I expect this game to live up to the hype and beyond. Playstyle and game planning will be a key factor in determining the winner, but as you take a closer look, the outcome becomes clearer. I have examined both squads in great detail, compared their strengths and weaknesses, and identified my best bet. Keep reading below to see who I’m backing, and follow along if you want to double your money!

LSU Tigers Breakdown

The LSU Tigers come into this game after an embarrassing loss at home against the Alabama Crimson Tide. In a night matchup with the home crowd on their side, the Tigers had a great opportunity for a statement win but were ultimately unable to get the job done. They now find themselves with a 6-3 record on the year in the midst of a two-game losing streak.

The LSU offense, behind Garrett Nussmeier, has been prolific all season, outside of the last two weeks. This unit ranks 9th in the country in passing yards per game and has averaged over 30 points per game. Nussmeier has had a strong connection with wide receiver Kyren Lacy, and the two have connected for seven touchdowns and nearly 700 of Nussmeier’s 2800+ yards. Tight end Mason Taylor is the second-leading receiver in this LSU offense and trails Lacy by just three receptions with 43 on the year.

While the passing game of the Tigers is extremely potent, the running game has not lived up to expectations. As a group, they average 114.0 yards per game, which only ranks 220th nationally. Running back Caden Durham leads the way in the backfield with 460 rushing yards and six touchdowns, but has had a limited 81 touches on the year, highlighting the preference to the pass.

The defensive unit has been shaky at times throughout the year. This group ranks no better than 130th in any statistical category and has allowed 24.9 points per game to their opponents. They are pretty even at defending the run vs. the pass but are not exceptional in either area. In an SEC matchup, however, I expect them to put their best foot forward and outperform expectations.

Florida Gators Breakdown

The Florida Gators, like LSU, are trending downward coming into this matchup. The Gators find themselves 4-5 on the year and are also entering with a two-game losing streak on their schedule. The Gators have surprised in some games but underwhelmed in others, and now they face a bit of an uphill battle for bowl eligibility.

The Florida Gators have utilized a mix of quarterbacks on the year, with Graham Mertz, DJ Lagway, and Aidan Warner all seeing playing time. Mertz is now out for the year, Lagway is injured and listed as questionable for this matchup, and Warner is the only healthy QB on the roster but also has the least experience. This is not an ideal situation for the 95th-ranked passing offense in the nation that has only mustered 12 passing touchdowns against ten interceptions collectively.

Florida will no doubt need to rely more heavily on their running game, which averages just a hair over 150 yards per game. Jaden Baugh is the Gators’ leading rusher this year but has only accounted for 411 yards on 89 touches. Florida will also use a mix of attempts from Montrell Johnson and Ja’Kobi Jackson, but Johnson is also listed as questionable for this game.

On the defensive side of the ball, Florida is similar to LSU in that their rankings are even across the run and the pass, but they are not strong in either facet. As a group, they allow 27.6 points per game and 415.4 yards of total offense.

My Pick: LSU Tigers -4.0 (-110)

Try not to overthink this one and ride with the Tigers in their matchup this Saturday. Florida looks to be reeling worse than LSU, and the mountain of injuries will be hard to overcome. It is tough to trust any team who may be down to their 3rd string QB, especially if they could be without their number two receiver and running back. While neither defensive unit is great, LSU also has the advantage here. Nussmeier and the LSU offense will be hard to contain and will rebound in a big way after their loss last week. Four points does not seem to be nearly enough in this one.