Louisville vs Washington Picks, Predictions & Best Bets

Louisville Cardinals (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. Washington Huskies (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Date/Time: Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 2PM EST
Where: Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas
TV: CBS

The Louisville Cardinals take on the Washington Huskies in El Paso on Tuesday in the Sun Bowl. Washington was a .500 team, completing their first season in the Big Ten. They last played on November 30—suffering a lopsided defeat to Oregon, 49-21. Louisville also played last on the 30th, giving both teams a tad over a month leading into this spot. The Cardinals, who looked pretty good at times to close the season, beat Kentucky 41-14 in their last appearance. Who should we get behind in this one?

Trying to Get a Read on Each Team

Washington did not have it easy this season, with coaches and players flying the coup after having a big season in 2023. They were thrown into the Big Ten Conference, dealing with new sites and unfamiliar teams with a completely restructured season from what they’re accustomed. And while at 6-6, there was a lot to be desired, they hung in there admirably, never got too down on themselves, and were at least able to forge a .500 season despite it looking like the wheels were going to fall off at times in the middle of the season.

Louisville was a bit up-and-down this season. They wilted a bit in mid-season with three losses in four games—all to good teams. And a later-season loss to Stanford as three-touchdown favorites really spoiled a better bowl outcome for the Cardinals. Still, despite some rocky moments, they were able to close the season strongly with four wins in their last five games with an offense that, when on, can do a lot of damage in some different ways.

Player Information

This season, the whole portal/opt-out situation has made some bowl analysis very tricky. We are again looking at a game where that component has played a central role. For Louisville, starting QB Tyler Shough will not be in, nor will leading receiver Ja’Corey Brooks, a giant part of their offensive production. For Washington, it’s been said they will be starting Demond Williams and not Will Rogers at quarterback, not to mention of slew of injuries that have their defense in tatters, particularly along the D-line. We don’t know who Louisville is going to go to at quarterback, and we enter this game with perhaps more questions than answers.

Ways to Look at It

On one hand, you could say Louisville had the better season. Toward the end of the season, they were far more-liable to cover spreads, as Washington only covered two of their last six spreads. The Cardinals have a higher ceiling. But with that type of offensive production missing and it not even being clear who they will be turning to at QB, do all the unknowns make them enough of a depreciated force that even Washington, who is also depleted, can hang in there with them?

One possible angle is that even though Rogers won’t be in action, Washington still has some vestiges of their offense remaining. Demond Williams looked good behind center this season, albeit with limited time. But if Washington running back Jonah Coleman plays this week, he could be the most relevant offensive player on this field, taking it to a less-than-100% Louisville defense. Louisville was actually pretty good against the run this season. But as there are transfers and opt-outs on the Cardinals’ defense, the Washington O-line won’t be the same one we saw Coleman running behind all season, so this is just another way in which all the player-movement makes things a bit tricky.

More Optimism for Washington?

Not having Will Rogers starting is more a coach’s decision, as coach Fisch went with Williams for the final game. And Williams looked good, going 17-for-20 against Oregon. And I’d imagine he’d want to get a leg-up for next season by performing well in this one, and with all the practices leading into this one where he’s getting all the work, along with going against a depreciated Louisville defense, maybe they can make some things work on offense and hope their defense performs better than it did against Oregon.

Not that the Huskies don’t have issues. Players are being shuffled. They’re not at full power. That defensive line is in tatters. But they do seem slightly more intact. One gets the feeling without really knowing that they might care slightly more about this than a Louisville team whose players seemed to perceive this game as a nuisance to their overall bigger plans. Shough is going to the draft, key guys are missing, and you just get this vibe that we could be getting a phone-in this week from the Cardinals.

Take the Points

I get the feeling that Washington can have their defense play a little better than Louisville’s this week. Combine that with perhaps less overall apathy on this Huskies sideline, and I can see them doing enough. I sense that, with Coleman, they will be able to move the ball, with their “D” doing enough with a Cardinals offense that steps into this spot with too many questions. It’s hard to feel too confident about either side of this equation, with all the changes perhaps resonating in a way where this almost feels like a hand of blackjack. With all the rampant opt-outs and transfer portal mess in college football this time of year, this game has been hit one of the hardest by that. Still, I think getting points, Washington could prove to be a nice choice this week. I’ll take the Huskies.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Washington Huskies plus 2.5 points.

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