Louisville vs. Florida State Pick & Analysis – ACC Title Game Predictions

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The Louisville Cardinals take on the Florida State Seminoles in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday in Charlotte. Florida State enters this a perfect 12-0, still hoping for a shot at the College Football Playoff, but facing personnel issues that might hold them back. They were still able to post a 24-15 win over in-state rival Florida last week to stay on track. They take on a Louisville team that while a bit under the radar, has peeled off a slew of conference wins to land in this spot. On Saturday, however, they fell to Kentucky, 38-31. All would be well with a conference title game win on Saturday. Will FSU stay unbeaten, or are they headed for trouble this week against the Cardinals in Charlotte? Let’s break it down!

The Prognosis for Florida State

It’s hard to tell how good Florida State QB Tate Rodemaker is, good in relief for the fallen Jordan Travis against N. Alabama, but not exactly on fire last week against a so-so Florida team. They won and covered the spread, but without Travis, this offense just isn’t the same. They got three TDs from running back Trey Benson, who they will need to rely on heavily in these last few games. But guys like Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson, TE Jaheim Bell, and a slew of dangerous receivers are now lacking that solid QB play, not to mention what Travis can do with his feet. You wonder whether Florida State can survive in this elevated late-season context with its offense rendered a shadow of its former self. Needless to say, with a now-reduced scope to offensive success, their appeal falls off somewhat precipitously. Rodemacher is a tough kid, as he showed coming back from a tremendous hit last week to lead his team to the big win. But he’s not some passing dynamo ready to hit the ground running.

Alas, a player like Jordan Travis doesn’t take a Florida State team through the ACC schedule with nary a hiccup without some help. The spark gained from a vital aerial attack is nice, but there are other things upon which to base their success. While not as strong as earlier in the season, the line has performed, as has their run game with Benson and a lot of help around him. But now is where they hope a defense that thrived all season can continue to deliver. Since week four, this group is allowing fewer than 13 points a game, all the while making plays and playing a big role in the unbeaten mark they have compiled. The linebacker talent is deep, led by Tatum Bethune and playmaking Kalen DeLoach, along with a front packed with studs like Jared Verse, Patrick Payton, Joshua Farmer, and others. With a defense like that, the offense needn’t really be that great, and maybe they can find a way to lean on that side of the ball for the last few games while the offense does enough to eke by.

Louisville’s Case

Florida State being without Travis is enough of a case in itself, but other than a setback to Pittsburgh, Louisville has really been tough in the ACC, going 7-1. The loss last week was surprising, and one area of concern heading into this homestretch are the diminishing returns on the defensive side of the ball. Against Pittsburgh, they faltered badly, only to come back with some fearsome performances. But since the Virginia game, where they were big favorites, we’ve seen the “D” start to fray a bit, giving up 24 to a down Cavaliers team and then 31 apiece to Miami and Kentucky. Again, with Florida State’s defense and their own suffering offense maybe having a chance to deliver in this spot against a beleaguered Cardinals’ defense, you start to see the case for the Seminoles developing.

The Louisville offense might not be electric. Cardinals’ QB Jack Plummer has been mistake-prone in spots, and the aerial attack is sometimes a bit lacking. They do have a multi-pronged run game led by Jawhar Jordan, along with a dangerous weapon for Plummer in WR Jamari Thrash. Plummer has been a starter for two teams, previously starting for Purdue, coming over with head coach Jeff Brohm, a pairing that shares a lot of experience. He’s a big and experienced guy, and what they lack in electric upside, they make up for in consistency, having scored between 31 and 38 points in six of their last seven games, the exception being a 23-0 shutout of ranked Duke. They also beat Notre Dame by 13 playing as 6-point dogs. Last week and the preceding games might show a team heading in the wrong direction, but until Saturday, they had lost one game all season, and they’d be a thorn in the side of the Seminoles even if not for the absence of Travis.

Take the Points

Stakes and W-L record aside, not to mention Louisville’s dicey recent form, I don’t think there’s a giant gulf in the quality of these respective teams. Having the experienced, consistent, and reliable Plummer in there heading into this championship spot, as opposed to Rodemacher, who has been waiting his turn behind Travis and is new to this level of pressure, gives this Louisville offense a greater air of dependability, albeit against a defense that should offer a lot of resistance. In the end, I see the Louisville offense getting enough done to make a run at this or at least keep it tight in a game where the points might come in handy. I’m going with Louisville.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Louisville Cardinals plus 2.5 points.