Louisville vs. Clemson Prediction: Can the Cardinals Cover the Spread?

Louisville Cardinals (5-3 SU, ATS 2-5)  vs Clemson Tigers (6-1 SU, ATS 4-3)

Date: 7:30 EST Saturday, November 2nd

Location: Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC), Clemson, SC

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Lou +10.5/Clem -10.5

Money Line: Cards +313/Tigers  -406

Over/Under: 61.5

Note: Make sure you’re betting into the best parlay odds on the web! 

ESPN is covering this Week 10 matchup between the Louisville Cardinals and Clemson Tigers, set for 7:30 ET at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, SC. The over/under line is currently at 61.5 points. Clemson is the -10.5 point favorite as they look to add another win to their 6-1 record. Louisville enters the game with a 5-3 record.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Louisville Cardinals and Clemson Tigers did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Louisville Cardinals have a record of 3-0. Against the spread, each team went 1-2 and finished with an over/under mark of 0-2-1. These games averaged a combined 75 points per contest.

Louisville Cardinals Recent Form:

Louisville heads into Week 10 against Clemson with a 5-3 record, ranked 17th in our power rankings. They have a 98.9% chance of becoming bowl-eligible but only a 0.1% shot at winning the Atlantic Coast. The Cardinals are 2-2 at home and 2-1 on the road this season.

Louisville has been favored in five of their eight games, going 4-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +12, but they are 2-5 against the spread, including a 0-3 mark on the road.

The over/under line for this week is 61.5 points. Louisville’s over/under record is 5-2, with their games averaging 61.2 points. Their average over/under line this season has been 54.5 points.

Louisville’s offense ranks 17th in points scored, averaging 36.6 per game, and they are 16th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 10. Their passing game is their strength, ranking 10th nationally with 302.8 yards per game, and they are 12th in completions, averaging 23.2 per game.

Tyler Shough has thrown for 2,348 yards with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 108. Louisville ranks 19th in passer rating. Isaac Brown leads the rushing attack with 649 yards, averaging 7 yards per carry. Ja’Corey Brooks has 799 receiving yards and eight touchdowns on 44 catches.

Louisville’s defense has allowed 24.6 points per game this season, including 27 points in their recent win against Boston College. They gave up 318 total yards, with 154 rushing yards on 41 attempts and 164 passing yards while allowing three passing touchdowns.

Opponents have averaged 222.8 passing yards per game against Louisville, completing 63.5% of their throws. The Cardinals rank 64th nationally in rushing defense, giving up 137.5 yards per game on the ground.

Away Injury Report

Clemson Tigers Recent Form:

Clemson enters Week 10 with a 6-1 record and a perfect 4-0 mark at home. They are ranked 13th in our power rankings and have a 22.9% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast. However, they are a lock for bowl eligibility and have a 33.1% chance of making the playoffs.

The Tigers have been favored in six of their seven games, going 6-0 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +19 points per game, and they are 4-3 against the spread this season.

This week’s over/under line is set at 61.5 points. Clemson’s games have averaged 65 points, and their over/under record is 3-3-1. The average line for their games has been 53 points, with an average margin of +12 points.

Clemson’s offense ranks 4th in our power rankings heading into week 10, and they are also 4th in points per game, scoring 42 per contest. Cade Klubnik has thrown for 1,836 yards and has a passer rating of 117. He has completed 66.7% of his passes, with 20 touchdowns and three interceptions.

Clemson is 38th in passing yards per game, averaging 290.6, and they are 43rd in rushing, with 201 yards per game. Phil Mafah leads the ground attack with 692 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry, and has scored six touchdowns. Antonio Williams is the top receiver, with 393 yards and five touchdowns.

Clemson’s defense has been solid against the run, allowing just 18 rushing yards on 28 attempts in their recent game against Virginia. They also forced two interceptions, though they gave up 31 points and 281 passing yards.

On average, Clemson’s defense ranks 31st nationally, allowing 23 points per game. They’ve given up 218 passing yards per game and 133 rushing yards, ranking 86th and 55th, respectively. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 56% of their passes against Clemson’s defense.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Across their five previous road games, Louisville has an ATS mark of 0-5. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 2-3 while averaging 22 points per game.
• Across their ten previous home games, Clemson has an ATS mark of 4-6. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 6-4 while averaging 24 points per game.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Louisville Cardinals have a straight-up record of 1-4 and an ATS mark of 1-4.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Clemson Tigers have a straight up record of 10-0 and an ATS mark of 7-3.

Free Pick

There is little doubt that Clemson is the better team than Louisville, but at +10.5 points, I like the Cardinals to cover the spread. Louisville has a strong enough offense to put up some points late, giving them a good chance to hang around or, at the bare minimum, pull off a late-game scoring drive to cover. I’m rolling with Louisville at +10.5 points.

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