Can Louisville Cover Against Pitt? ATS Betting Pick for Saturday

NCAAF Game Preview: Pittsburgh Panthers at Louisville Cardinals

Where: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (Louisville, KY)

When: Saturday November 23rd at 4:00 PM EST

Watch: ESPN2

Betting Lines and Odds

Louisville Cardinals -8.0

Over/Under 57.5

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ACC Matchup Preview: Panthers and Cardinals Face Critical Conference Battle

An ACC showdown between two programs who have already clinched bowl eligibility is set to take place this Saturday afternoon as the Pittsburgh Panthers will attempt to snap their losing streak on the road against the Louisville Cardinals. While Pitt and Louisville are not the most premier names in college football, both sides have had some success this year and in recent memory as well. On paper, there are so many similarities between the Panthers and the Cardinals and their preferred playstyles align for the most part. With such little variability, this game is poised to be one of the best of the weekend. Which of these teams will walk away victorious and gain some much needed momentum before season’s end? Keep reading to see my prediction and best bet for this contest.

Pittsburgh Panthers Team Analysis: Offensive Firepower Hinges on Holstein’s Return

The Pittsburgh Panthers were absolutely rolling for the first seven weeks of the 2024 college football season. Unfortunately, the wheels have started to fall off over the last three games and now Pitt enters this matchup in the midst of a three-game losing streak. The biggest question mark for the Panthers will be the availability of their star quarterback Eli Holstein. Holstein suffered a concussion a few weeks back and has still not cleared protocol, so his status is still questionable. On the year, Holstein has racked up 2177 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and a 141.7 passer rating. His backup, Nate Yarnell, just does not have the same juice to keep the offense firing. Pittsburgh has two established wide receivers in Desmond Reid and Konata Mumpfield who have both crossed the 40 reception and 500 yard mark on the year. Pitt also has three other pass catchers who have amassed at least 30 receptions, so they can spread the ball around and drive down field consistently. Their passing game averages 284.4 yards per game, good for 24th nationally. The running game has been serviceable and has added an average of 144.4 yards per game, helping the Panthers to score 35 points per contest. If Holstein can return to action, I expect a highly proficient offense to take the field once again. The Pitt defense can shut down the run like the best of them in the country. They currently rank 24th in rushing yards allowed and only concede 104.6 yards per game on the ground. They have had some trouble getting off the field and have allowed opponents to score 25 points per game on average, mainly due to their inability to stop the passing attack.

Louisville Cardinals Breakdown: High-Powered Offense Faces Key Injuries

The Louisville Cardinals find themselves 6-4 on the year after dropping a heartbreaker on the road at Stanford last week. The Cardinals are three spots ahead of Pitt in the ACC standings, and are hoping to win out to increase their chances of being awarded a high profile bowl game at the conclusion of the regular season. Their offensive playstyle leans heavily toward the air attack and they have been able to average 284.8 yards per game through the air behind QB Tyler Shough. Shough has thrown 21 touchdowns against just 6 interceptions this year and has found ways to put points on the board consistently. When the offense is in rhythm, Louisville can score at will and have averaged 36.1 points per game this season. Shough’s top target has been Ja’Corey Brooks, who is just 55 yards away from surpassing 1000 on the year. Brooks has also caught 8 touchdowns and will continue to be a focal point of this offense the rest of the way. Running back Isaac Brown has been the bell cow for the Louisville rushing attack and has more than double the rushing attempts than the next guy on the depth chart. His status is unclear as he tries to recover from a shoulder injury. The Cardinals defense is a bit lackluster and does not rank very highly in any defensive category. They have surrendered 388 yards of total offense per game and 25.6 points per game to their opposition. Their passing defense is 182nd in the country and it will be another tough matchup if Holstein is able to get under center for the Panthers.

Expert Game Prediction and Best Betting Pick

My Pick: Pittsburgh Panthers +8.0 (-110)

This line is a bit insulting to the Panthers and even though they have struggled lately, they have a great opportunity to pick up a conference victory this week and easily cover the spread. Holstein’s availability will be key here, but if he is able to return, this line is going to swing in a big way. Louisville may also be without their leading rusher against a Pitt defense that is especially stingy in defending the ground attack. I would jump on this line early and hope that the return of Holstein will make this a tightly contested affair. I’m going to sprinkle something on Pitt ML as well, and at +250 odds, it would be a nice return.

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