Louisville Cardinals at North Carolina State Wolfpack Best Bet

Louisville Cardinals (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) at North Carolina State Wolfpack (3-1, 0-4), 9/29/23
When: 7 pm ET Friday, Sept. 29
Where: Carter-Finley Stadium
TV: ESPN
CFB betting odds: Lou -3/NC St +3 (Take 2 mins to learn about reduced juice! HUGE value!)
Over/under: 55

Louisville’s 2-0 in ACC play so far, North Carolina State 1-0, heading into Friday night’s rumble in Raleigh. Both teams are shooting for upper-division finishes in the ACC this season, and both teams brought in veteran transfer quarterbacks in that pursuit.

NCAAF Betting Odds

This week’s college football betting market opened Louisville as a three-point conference road favorite for Friday, with an over/under of right around 55. Both numbers were holding steady in the early betting action.

Louisville Betting Preview

The Cardinals are 4-0 under new HC Brohm after blowing out Boston College last Saturday 56-28. Louisville, which scored touchdowns on its first seven possessions of the game, led 28-0 before allowing the Eagles to hit the board and 42-14 at the half. The Cardinals then scored a TD on their first play of the second half and breezed home from there for the win and the cover at -14.

The Cardinals racked up 582 yards of total offense, and while they eventually allowed 427 yards of Boston College offense almost all that came after going up by four scores.

Louisville opened this season with a 39-34 victory over Georgia Tech, although it had to come from behind and came up short ATS at -7. The Cardinals then disposed of Murray State (FCS) 56-0, then won at Indiana 21-14.

The Cardinals only returned 12 starters this season from a team that played 8-5 last season. But they added transfer QB Jack Plummer from Cal, who owns a 10/4 TD/INT ratio so far.

North Carolina State Betting Preview

The Wolfpack are 3-1 on the season after winning at Virginia last Friday 24-21. NC State drew first blood with a touchdown early in the second quarter and led 14-7 at the half. The Pack, favored by seven points, later allowed the Cavaliers to tie the score at 21-21 on a TD and a 2-point conversion with 36 seconds left. But North Carolina State took advantage of a couple of crucial Virginia penalties and kicked a game-winning field goal at the buzzer.

The Wolfpack actually got out-gained by the Cavaliers 384-319 but won the turnover battle 2-1.

North Carolina State opened its season with an underwhelming 24-14 win over Connecticut, then lost to Notre Dame 45-24, although that was a 24-17 game into the fourth quarter. State then beat VMI (FCS) 45-7 but came up short ATS at -43.

The Wolfpack only returned 11 starters this season from a team that played 8-5 last year, and they lost their leading rusher a couple of weeks ago to the portal. But they also brought in transfer QB Brennan Armstrong, who’s back playing under his former OC at Virginia, where they shared some success.

Louisville-North Carolina State Recent History

These teams have split four meetings, both SU and ATS, since QB Lamar Jackson left the Cardinals for the pros. Last year Louisville led at home 13-10 through three quarters, then pulled away in the fourth for a 25-10 victory and the cover at -4.

College Football Betting Trends

The favorite is 4-0 both SU and ATS over the last four meetings between these teams.

Totals Report

The overs are 2-1 in Louisville’s games vs. FBS opponents this season.

The Unders are 2-1 in North Carolina State’s games vs. FBS foes this season.

The Unders are 4-1 over the last five meetings between these teams.

Free College Football Betting Pick

We give Louisville the check-mark on offense, with the better running game. And while NC State might own an edge on defense, it’s close. Also, the Cardinals own the most impressive performance by either of these teams so far this season, last week’s romp over Boston College. And playing on the road means the spread’s a little friendlier. We’re betting Louisville on Friday night.