Cards at Cavs Pick ATS – Fireworks in Charlottesville?

Louisville Cardinals (3-2 SU, ATS 2-2)  vs Virginia Cavaliers (4-1 SU, ATS 2-1-1)

Date: 3:30 EST Saturday, October 12th

Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA

TV: ACCN

Point Spread: U of Lou -7.5/UVA +7.5

Money Line: Lou -287/VA  +231

Over/Under: 54.5

Coming into this week seven matchup, the Louisville Cardinals are favored at -7.5 as they take on the Virginia Cavaliers at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville. Kick-off is set for 3:30 ET, with ACCN handling the broadcast. The over/under line is currently 54.5 points. Louisville has a 3-2 record, while Virginia sits at 4-1 on the season.

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Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Louisville Cardinals and Virginia Cavaliers did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Louisville Cardinals have a record of 2-1. The Louisville Cardinals also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 53 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 1-2.

Louisville Cardinals Recent Form:

Louisville enters Week 7 against Virginia with a 3-2 record, ranked 16th in our power rankings. They have a 91.9% chance of becoming bowl-eligible but only a 4.9% shot at winning the Atlantic Coast. The Cardinals are 2-1 at home and 0-1 on the road this season.

Louisville’s ATS record stands at 2-2, with a +19 average scoring margin. They are 2-1 against the spread as favorites and 0-1 as underdogs.

Their over/under record is 3-1, with games averaging 58.2 points. The average line has been 53.4 points, and this week’s line is set at 54.5 points.

Louisville’s offense is averaging 38.6 points per game heading into week 7, placing them 18th in our offensive power rankings. Tyler Shough has thrown for 1,443 yards, 13 touchdowns, and just two interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 118. Overall, Louisville ranks 22nd in passing yards per game, averaging 303.4 yards, and they are 14th in passer rating nationally.

Shough has completed 64.5% of his passes, and Louisville ranks 25th in completion percentage as a team. They are 29th in passing completions and 39th in attempts. On the ground, they are averaging 179.2 rushing yards per game. Isaac Brown leads the team with 362 rushing yards, averaging 9 yards per carry. Ja’Corey Brooks has 489 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 25 catches.

Louisville’s defense, ranked 26th nationally, has allowed an average of 19.6 points per game this season. In their recent game against SMU, they gave up 34 points, including 485 total yards, with 291 passing yards and 194 rushing yards.

Opponents have averaged 115.2 rushing yards per game against Louisville, while quarterbacks have posted a 92.2 passer rating and completed 67.4% of their passes.

Away Injury Report

Virginia Cavaliers Recent Form:

Virginia enters Week 7 with a 4-1 record, but their chances of winning the Atlantic Coast are slim at 0.5%. However, they have a 58% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Cavaliers are 2-0 on the road and 1-1 at home this season.

Virginia has been favored in four of their five games, going 3-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +7.4 points, and they are 2-1-1 against the spread this season.

The over/under line for this week is 54.5 points. Virginia’s games have averaged 50.6 points, with an average over/under line of 53.8 points. Their over/under record is 2-2 so far this season.

Heading into week 7, Virginia’s offense is averaging 29 points per game, placing them 49th in the nation. They are ranked 69th in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Anthony Colandrea has thrown for 1,211 yards, completing 66.4% of his passes, and has eight touchdowns with four interceptions. His passer rating is 98.

Virginia ranks 44th in passing attempts per game and 35th in completions. They average 252 passing yards per game. On the ground, they are 57th nationally with 181 rushing yards per game. Xavier Brown leads the team with 315 rushing yards, averaging 8 yards per carry. Malachi Fields has 412 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Virginia’s defense played a key role in their recent 24-14 win over Boston College, allowing just 14 points. They limited Boston College to 65 rushing yards on 29 attempts while giving up 254 passing yards and forcing two interceptions.

On the season, Virginia ranks 33rd nationally, allowing 21.6 points per game. They’ve given up 113.2 rushing yards per game (36th) and 266.4 passing yards per game, ranking 143rd in the nation.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Louisville Cardinals have a straight-up record of 4-6 while going 2-8 vs. the spread. The team averaged 23 points per game in this stretch.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Virginia has an ATS record of 4-0-1 while averaging 31 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Virginia Cavaliers have a straight-up record of 1-2 and an ATS mark of 2-1.
• As the betting favorite, the Louisville Cardinals have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 3-2.

Free Pick

This Louisville vs. Virginia is an intriguing one this week, as Louisville has one of the most explosive offenses in college football, but Virginia has a fairly capable defense. Although I don’t see them shutting Louisville down, I do think they make things difficult for the Cardinals. I really like Virginia at home in this one, and I would take them to cover at +7.5.

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