Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston State: Week 10 CFB Picks and Predictions

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. Sam Houston State Bearkats (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 10
Date/Time: Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 8PM EDT
Where: Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, Texas
TV: ESPN U

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs come to Elliott T. Bowers Stadium on Tuesday for a Conference USA showdown with the Sam Houston State Bearkats. Sam Houston is sitting at 6-2 and can still make a run at the conference if some things shake out their way. Last Tuesday’s 10-7 win over Florida International helped atone for their lone conference loss the week before, and they look now to get on another run at home against the incoming Bulldogs. Despite having been in a rough patch, the Bulldogs got it together last Tuesday in a 14-10 win over UTEP, making it so they enter this with some decent momentum. Who should we get behind in this Tuesday night Conference USA special?

Will the Bearkats Be Hard to Stop?

A 3-9 season in their first campaign in the FBS in 2023 has led to a major uptick this season for the Bearkats. K.C. Keeler’s squad is playing really good ball, and since losing to Central Florida in an early-season matchup, they’ve done well, with their only loss in the conference being a few weeks ago to conference-leader Western Kentucky. Still, after some nice point-outputs to begin the season, they’ve scored a combined 24 points in their last two games. And with a sometimes-decent Louisiana Tech defense coming into town, they better find some answers.

Their recent offensive dip, however, could easily be traced to losing QB Hunter Watson to a concussion early in the loss against WKU. After sitting out the last game, Watson is listed as probable for this, which you would assume would get the Sam Houston State offense close to what it was a few weeks ago. While Watson’s arm is missing, they also miss his legs, as he and DJ McKinney led a nice rushing attack. But it’s guys like receivers Qua’Vez Humphreys and Simeon Evans who should stand to gain most with Watson’s return. And the idea of a close-to-full-strength Bearkats offense should provide concern for the visiting Bulldogs this week.

The Bulldogs: A Difficult Team to Assess

On one hand, with Louisiana Tech, you see a string of losses, wins over the bottom-feeders of the conference in Middle Tennessee and UTEP, along with a win over the FCS’ Nichols State. And barely skating by UTEP is no great feat, as they did last week. The results are stark enough to make it seem safe to classify them as maybe not being among the worst in the conference but decidedly a few levels beneath the cream of the Conference USA crop.

The Bulldogs’ defense isn’t terribly exciting, and they lack that game-changing component, unable to really manufacture turnovers or a pass rush. But they are curiously stout in certain spots, and when the team fails, it’s seldom attributable to this side of the ball, which, for their part, tends to keep the Bulldogs in games. Evan Bullock leads an offense that isn’t very electric, but with 9 TD throws and no picks, at least he’s somewhat-efficient and his main weapon in Tru Edwards is one of the best in the conference. But make no mistake, with a lack of a strong run game and a hit-and-miss aerial game, this is an offense that can thrive in certain spots while struggling against the better teams they play. And based on what we’ve seen this season, Sam Houston would qualify as one of the better teams.

Matchup Issues for the Bulldogs

Granted, Bullock has been careful with the ball, but if there were a first time to see that become a problem, this week is as good as any. The Sam Houston defense is by no means impermeable, but they can make big plays, with 14 turnovers on the season and a lot of other disruption taking place. They’ve been roughed up in a few spots, with WKU taking it to them a bit, along with some other spots. But when pitted against lower-end offenses, we see what they do well generally surface in a major way.

I’m not so sure I like the idea of a non-rushing team coming into this stadium and controlling the game through the air. Especially when we see the Bulldogs not really letting it rip aerially. It’d be a nice aspect of their offense if accompanied by a strong rush, which they don’t have. And maybe going against this opportunistic defense, the Bulldogs will find the going to be a bit tough. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech’s own defense will be dealing with a more well-rounded offense—one that is at home and that will have better control of clock, pace, and tempo.

Take the Home Favorite

With their merging into the FBS still fresh, the Bearkats all already bowl-eligible and I’d imagine the morale is high, as they return home for a conference game. While keeping in mind that the Bearkats have yet to emerge in a clearcut way as the foolproof kind of conference team where you’re comfortable laying almost double-digits in points, there are certain matchup components that should shake out well. Whether it’s the diversity of their offense, overall energy, or their big-play defense, I see the Bearkats taking care of business at home this week with the big win and cover at home. I’m taking Sam Houston State.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Sam Houston State Bearkats minus 9.5 points.

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