Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State Picks: Week 8 Predictions

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. New Mexico State Aggies (1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 8
Date/Time: Tuesday, October 15, 2024 at 9PM EDT
Where: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, New Mexico
TV: ESPN U

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs make the trip to Las Cruces for a Tuesday night Conference USA showdown with the New Mexico State Aggies. The Aggies are at home for this but on the heels of 5 straight defeats, including an unsightly 53-14 loss to Jacksonville State on the 9th. It has gotten pretty ugly for them on the field, while those backing them at the betting windows have also felt the sting. Winless since a week one win over Nichols State, the Bulldogs were able to notch their first conference win of the season on the 10th, beating Middle Tennessee 48-21, and looking to keep it going in what appears to be a winnable spot on Tuesday. What’s the move for this midweek Conference USA tilt from Las Cruces?

Tough to Get Behind the Aggies?

On the surface, it’s not easy to back this squad. Other than a close week one win over Southeast Missouri, Tony Sanchez’s team has spent the better part of the last five games getting their hats handed to them. If looking for their high-water marks of the season after week one, you can maybe defer to a slightly better-than-expected loss to Liberty, 30-24, or maybe how they put up points in a loss to a 0-4 New Mexico team, 50-40. But when contrasted with them getting blown out 48-0 by Fresno, putting up no fight against Sam Houston, and then last week getting demolished by a 2-3 Jacksonville State squad, it creates a pretty bad image for a team, even one that is home and getting a fair amount of points in this conference game.

The Aggies have been splitting up quarterback duties between Parker Awad and Santino Marucci, neither of whom has been able to get the Aggies rolling aerially. They have a decent one-two punch out of the backfield with Seth McGowan and Mike Washington. In games where things are halfway competitive, they can be pretty good in spots, but with games getting away from them, it’s not a part of the game that has teeth and is often scripted out of games with opponents screaming out to big leads. But at home against another team with issues, maybe it’s an aspect of their offense that can make an impact this week.

What Can Louisiana Tech Do About It?

First of all, they bring with them a much higher level of overall functionality. They’ve been in the dumps, with Sonny Cumbie’s team coming off three straight 3-9 seasons and this year looking like it was going to continue at the same pace. But last week, as 5-point underdogs, they really laid it on Middle Tennessee, with QB Evan Bullock throwing for 5 TDs and running in one more on a huge day for this Bulldogs’ offense. Make no mistake, this offense still has issues. They’re not really adept at running the ball, and the aerial bonanza we witnessed last week is hardly typical. From week to week, we can see a pretty wide range of play from this offense. But the potential is at least there.

With aerial targets like Marlion Jackson, Tru Edwards, and Jay Wilkerson, the Louisiana Tech offense has some weapons to wield on an undermanned New Mexico State defense. What they can do through the air is the most compelling aspect of what either team does on offense, and it really is one of the only things to latch onto when breaking down this game along those lines. Another could easily be how Louisiana Tech has been far more adept on defense, different opponents notwithstanding. In their last four games, the Bulldogs have allowed 81 points, while the Aggies have allowed 182 points. They are generally more-rigid, while also making some big plays along the way. The Aggies’ defense, meanwhile, sometimes just looks like it’s out there taking up space.

Making a Case for New Mexico State

It’s not easy with the Aggies to find the silver lining. One could say they beat this Bulldogs team last season, on the road, to boot. But that might only bring to light how the Aggies went from a 10-win team last season under Jerry Kill to a team fighting to keep its nose above water in 2024. But from a football perspective, there is some ammo to the notion that the Aggies can keep this one somewhere in the competitive realm. We’ve seen teams exact a terrible toll on the Aggies this season on the ground. Teams who can apply a steady rushing attack have been gashing this Aggies’ defense for giant runs, keeping their offense off the field and taking them out of games.

That’s not something you’re generally going to get a lot of from this Louisiana Tech offense, where their main thrust is aerial. A Bulldogs’ offensive line that sometimes struggles in pass protection is worse in springing loose a run game, with a lot of attempted runs getting stuffed. It makes them pretty one-dimensional, as they usually opt for the pass. But maybe the New Mexico State defense avoiding big passing days from opposing quarterbacks this season is more a result of teams just finding the run so easy and accessible that they just didn’t need it. Either way, the Aggies are at home, getting a nice chunk of points, and at least facing a team that is unlike the ones that have taken it to their defense so far this season.

Take the Points

It’s not easy getting behind the Aggies, losing and not covering spreads, not even coming close in some cases. I just think things come around a little this week, between the point-allowance, the home setting, and their pass defense maybe being at least a little better than their run defense. I see the combination of those things colliding to make it so they keep within touch of the Bulldogs this week. I’m taking New Mexico State.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the New Mexico State Aggies plus 11 points.

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