Loot’s College Football Best Bets: Hawaii vs. San Diego State

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 6
Date/Time: Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 8PM EDT
Where: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California
TV: CBS Sports Network

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors come to Snapdragon Stadium for a Mountain West Conference showdown with the San Diego Aztecs on Saturday. In head coach Sean Lewis’ first season at the helm, he has found the going rough, and an Aztecs team that had begun to forge a strong path has fallen on hard times, going 4-8 last season and starting at 1-3 in 2024. On Saturday, they showed some moxie in a tough road loss to Central Michigan, losing 22-21 on a last-second FG. After two road games in a row, they return to San Diego to kick off their conference schedule against the Rainbow Warriors. They were off last week after evening their record at 2-2 the previous week with a 36-7 win over Northern Iowa. They also begin their conference play this week. Who should we get behind on Saturday?

Assessing the Rainbow Warriors

We have some contrasting data in what has been a strange open to the season for Hawaii. On the one hand, they played UCLA really tough, losing 16-13 after taking the lead into the fourth quarter against their heavily favored opponent. The next week, they were hammered by Sam Houston State, 31-13. Sandwiching those two games are wins over Delaware State to open the year and their win two weeks ago against Northern Iowa. That’s a big range of results against an even bigger range of opponents that makes getting a real read on this team difficult.

In the Rainbow Warriors’ favor is the live arm of veteran Hawaii QB Brayden Schager. He isn’t always consistent, and he can throw some picks, but he’s dangerous and knows how to produce in Mountain West games, as he’s shown for the last several years. He works well with familiar targets Potele Ashlock and Dekel Crowdus, with Nick Cenacle establishing his presence in this passing-attack, as well. The bigger questions might exist on the other side of the ball for a defense that has performed well in some easier spots, with the Sam Houston result being enough to make you wonder if it’s all real. To their credit, they seem adept at getting turnovers. We see them getting after opposing quarterbacks. They held UCLA down and while it’s not a good Bruins team, it shows they can deal with some talent. And dealing with the San Diego State offense this week, we won’t really see them facing one of the tougher offensive matchups in the conference this season.

A Look Under the Hood for the San Diego State Offense

Putting aside the Aztecs’ lopsided game one win over Texas A&M-Commerce, this offense has been sputtering for SDSU, getting blanked against Oregon State and then managing ten against Cal. Their three-touchdown showing in the one-point loss to CMU last week was a step in the right direction. QB Danny O’Neil is seeing his first action at this level, and the results have been mixed. On the positive side, he has room to grow and hasn’t thrown a pick yet. The two TDs he threw on Saturday were promising, and he’s connecting well with WR Louis Brown, IV. He’s just not really doing anything that well and isn’t going to add anything with his legs to accompany his less-than-sterling aerial work. After running for 1000 yards three times between Ball State and Kent State, we see Aztecs’ RB Marquez Cooper off to a good start with his new team. Maybe they can see better results against Hawaii and their unproven defense, but even those who get behind San Diego State can’t feel too comfortable about it. This offense can hit some pretty deep valleys.

San Diego State’s Advantage This Week

The Aztecs’ defense isn’t infallible, but I doubt they’d allow 31 to Sam Houston State, for all that’s worth. Giving up 31 to Cal wasn’t a great look. But allowing only 21 to a good Oregon State team when their offense is totally on its back shows what this “D” can do. And going into CMU and allowing just two offensive touchdowns isn’t bad, either. When the going gets tough, they are at least able to turn things around with some big plays. We’ve seen this Aztecs’ pass rush crank it up at points this season. They can get turnovers. They get a lot of stops. And sure, Hawaii offers some challenges with what they can do with Schager and his targets, as well as with a defense where their true effectiveness is more unknown. It’s just that with San Diego State, they’ve been playing a level of competition that has them ready for this type of spot. Hawaii, meanwhile, starts conference play a little less battle-tempered than the Aztecs.

Lay the Number

It’s understandable in a game like this, where points may be hard to come by, that you’d want to side with the more established offense, and that would be Schager and his tools. I just sense that San Diego State can provide a big dosage of Cooper while getting O’Neil to connect more with Brown. Then, a playmaking and stout defense can start to exert control while the Aztecs manage to keep the Rainbow Warriors at arm’s length. In a tough conference opener for both squads, I see the Aztecs eking this one out at home for the win and the cover on Saturday.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the San Diego State Aztecs minus 2.5 points.