Liberty vs. Jacksonville State: Can the Gamecocks Pull Off the Upset?

Jacksonville State Gamecocks (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) vs. Liberty Flames (5-1 SU, 1-5 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 10
Date/Time: Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 7PM EDT
Where: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, Virginia
TV: CBS Sports Network

The Jacksonville State Gamecocks come to Lynchburg on Wednesday for a Conference USA showdown with the Liberty Flames. Last Wednesday was a bizarre one for the Flames, tasting defeat for the first time of the year as 26.5-point favorites. Having it happen against previously-winless Kennesaw State for that program’s first-ever win as an FBS program really puts a giant stink on it for the Flames. Jacksonville State, meanwhile, has really altered course after an 0-3 start, winning their fourth game in a row last Wednesday with a 42-20 win over Middle Tennessee State. What’s the right move betting-wise for this C-USA midweek spot?

Reassessing Liberty

Last week was a graphic fruition of some troubling signs all season for the Flames. Other than an upset win in September over East Carolina, they haven’t covered the spread at all this season. Before coming off a week break and laying an egg against Kennesaw State last week, they struggled in an overtime win over another bad team in FIU. The win over ECU was nice, but other than that, their most impressive win might be over New Mexico State by 6 points. The loss just makes it stand out more now, but this hasn’t been going that well. Be that as it may, the loss last week ended a 17-game regular season win streak for this team. So, not all is gloom and despair. I just wonder if they’re really that good.

We see the Flames laboring almost weekly. Then we also see that the teams Liberty has played now sit at a combined 13-32 in the win-loss column, it’s clear they haven’t been in that tough and are clearly struggling. The offense and QB Kaidon Salter have ebbed slightly over the course of the season. They’ve had some injury setbacks. They still have a productive run-game with Billy Lucas and Quinton Cooley, as Salter also adds a lot with his feet. Last season, when Liberty beat the Gamecocks 31-13, Cooley was huge in that game and looks for something similar on Wednesday. But Salter, while taking care of the ball and being efficient in spots, hasn’t gotten much from the aerial game. We also see a defense that, while not what you would call “bad,” is still sometimes just out there taking up space and not making a lot of good things happen.

What Can the Gamecocks Do About It?

In their second season in the FBS, Rich Rodriguez’ team is coming off a 9-win season where they won a bowl-game. It got off to a bad start this season, but they’ve caught fire with four straight wins, scoring a combined 203 points in the process. It’s a reminder to not lock in perceptions too early for a team. And in light of who the Flames have played and the Gamecocks’ current trajectory, it’s fair to say this is as tough a spot as Liberty has been in this season, albeit with it coming at home. Jacksonville State quarterback Tyler Huff is pretty strong aerially; he is not a dynamo by any means, but he connects well with Cam Vaughn and Michael Pettway. The real lynchpin of the success of this offense is the run game, an area where Huff really thrives, with 8 TD runs so far. Add in another 11 from lead back Tre Stewart, and that’s how this offense’s bread is buttered. Word is, however, that Huff is dealing with a leg injury heading into this spot. Confirming his presence behind center would be a must, as his absence throws their team for a loop.

In terms of momentum, Jacksonville State clearly has an advantage. When a team reverses their fate so drastically, it can be difficult to separate them from their newfound success. They’re pounding teams into submission with nary a moment of stress while Liberty is digging deep to keep pace with the bottom-end teams of the conference. Their offense is keeping their defense well-rested. And when the “D” does come out, we’re seeing a lot of big plays, key stops, and turnovers to chip into the cause. Liberty does have weapons, as the Gamecocks well know, but maybe they can do a little better than last year and prevent guys like Cooley from going bonkers.

Keeping Things in Balance

You start to see a pick forming along the lines of Jacksonville doing so well and Liberty coming off a rough patch and losing a bad one last week. I’d exercise caution in getting too carried away with that narrative. Again, last week’s loss, as ugly as it was and to as ragged an opponent as you could see, was still their first in a long time. They are at home in not an entirely favorable spot for road opponents. They beat this team by 18 last season, and some of the key personnel from that win are still on this Liberty sideline. And with their supremacy in this conference now being challenged, maybe they can respond here at home in what is really a crossroads-type game for the Flames.

Take the Points

If, in fact, Liberty is about to come apart at the seams, with the streaking Gamecocks in line to capitalize, great. I wouldn’t bank on it. I sense a big struggle for both teams and even with the high total, I wouldn’t mind having a couple of points of buffer just in case. But I do suspect that what we’ve been seeing is representative of where these teams are. And while the Flames won’t go quietly, I see the Gamecocks’ offense keeping pace with a shot at the end to win, of course, assuming all is OK with Huff. I’ll take Jacksonville State.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks plus 2.5 points.

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