Liberty Bowl Pick: Memphis vs. Iowa State

Memphis Tigers (9-3 SU, 4-7-1 ATS) vs. Iowa State Cyclones (7-5, 7-5), 12/29/23

When: 3:30 pm ET Friday, Dec. 29

Where: Liberty Stadium

TV: ESPN

CFB Betting Odds:

Point Spread: Mem +9.5/ISU -9.5

Moneyline: Mem +260/ISU -330

Over/under: 57.5

It’s a rematch of a fun Liberty Bowl of a few seasons ago when Iowa State meets Memphis for the 65th edition of the Liberty Bowl on Friday, Dec. 29, on the Tigers’ home field in Memphis.

The Cyclones are coming off a six-win Big 12 campaign while the Tigers won six games in AAC play. So the difference in the conferences appears to account for much of the spread on this game.

Who do we like for our free Liberty Bowl betting pick?

Bowl Season Betting Odds

The CFB bowl season betting market opened Iowa State at -7 for this Liberty Bowl, with an over/under of right around 57.5. Early betting action goosed that spread to 9.5.

According to Sagarin’s ratings, the line on this game should be 10 points.

Liberty Bowl Betting Preview

Memphis played 9-3 this season, 6-2 in the AAC, to reach a bowl for the second straight season. The Tigers started 4-2 with a seven-point loss to what turned out to be a pretty good Missouri team and a tough loss to a good Tulane team. Memphis then won four in a row, putting up some big offensive numbers, but a 38-34 loss to eventual AAC champion SMU knocked the Tigers out of contention for the conference championship. Memphis then ended its regular season on a good note, winning at Temple 45-23 back on Nov. 24.

The Tigers only returned 12 starters this season and were expected to finish just behind the big 3 of the AAC. And that’s basically what happened. But the nine wins are already two more than Memphis recorded last year. Also, the Tigers led the Green Wave in the fourth quarter and were tied with the Mustangs in the fourth before losing those games. A few plays here and there and Memphis might be 10-2 or even 11-1.

Meanwhile, Iowa State played 7-5 this season, 6-3 in the Big 12, to make a bowl after missing out last season. The Cyclones only started 2-3, with a win over a good Oklahoma State team and tough losses to rival Iowa and Ohio. ISU then won three straight before taking another tough defeat against Kansas. The Cyclones later gave Texas, which made the College Football Playoff, a good game in a 26-16 loss, then finished the regular season with a 42-35 upset of Kansas State in the snow in Manhattan.

Iowa State returned 15 starters this season and was still picked to finish in the bottom half of the Big 12. So the 6-3 finish in conference play exceeded expectations, as the Cyclones have done so many times under Coach Campbell.

The best team Memphis played this season was Missouri; the Tigers gave up over 500 yards of Mizzou offense and lost 34-27.

The best team the Cyclones played this season was Texas; ISU gave up over 400 yards of ‘Horns’ offense and lost 26-16.

These teams last met in the 2017 Liberty Bowl, a 21-20 Iowa State victory.

By the Numbers

Memphis averaged 452 yards per game on offense this season, 151 rushing. Defensively the Tigers allowed 423 YPG, 170 rushing. This while playing what Sagarin ranks as the 108th-toughest schedule in CFB.

Iowa State averaged 358 YPG on offense, 130 on the ground, allowed 349 YPG on defense, 132 on the ground, while playing Sagarin’s 9th-toughest schedule.

College Football Betting Trends

The Big 12 played 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS against the AAC this season.

Last bowl season, members of the Group of 5 played 3-2, both SU and ATS, against the Power 5.

Totals Report

The Overs are 10-2 in Tigers games this season, which are averaging 69 total points.

The Unders are 7-5 in Cyclones games, which are averaging 48 points.

Free Liberty Bowl Pick

Iowa State played the tougher schedule and owns the better defense and should win this game outright. But Memphis has the tools on offense to keep this one very interesting. The Tigers hit the 40-point mark five times over their last six games and scored 27 on Missouri earlier this season. If they can put up 27 here, that should be enough to cover. We like Memphis plus the points for this Liberty Bowl.