L.A Bowl Pick: UCLA Bruins vs. Boise State Broncos

The UCLA Bruins face off with the Boise State Broncos at SoFi Stadium in the L.A. Bowl on Saturday. Boise managed to finish the season well, taking down the Mountain West Conference Championship in their last game on December 2, a rollicking 44-20 win over UNLV. They hope to use that momentum in a demanding spot, taking on a UCLA team playing near home at SoFi Stadium. Things didn’t end so well for the Bruins, however, with their last game a tough 33-7 loss to Cal. Who can get us the cover this week in the City of angels?

The Momentum Angle

It’s a time in the season when we see some teams ascending by year’s end and some teams petering out at the finish line. To cast these teams as being on opposite ends of that spectrum might be going too far. Still, there is a momentum differential entering this game, with UCLA’s win over a fading USC team their only win in their last four. At one point, the Bruins were in decent shape, sitting at 6-2. So maybe their 7-5 mark to end the regular season should serve as a warning that their best football is well in the rearview this season.

On the other sideline, you have a Boise State that started off 4-5 this season, resuscitating their team late in the season to go on a nice run, somehow making it to the conference title game. And in that game, as Boise smashed what had been a good Rebels team, we saw a Broncos team peaking late in the season. What had looked like one of the worst Boise teams to come down the pike in quite some time actually started looking the part late in the season, and that’s trouble for the Bruins, despite their home advantage and the fact they’ve faced far-stiffer tests in the Pac-12. In any event, Boise’s superior form entering into this spot enhances them as a pick.

State of the Bruins

Their main starter, QB Dante Moore, entered the transfer portal, leaving someone with starting experience in Ethan Garbers behind center. It’s not even totally clear that Garbers wasn’t better than Moore this season. Either way, QB play has been a sticking point with this team this season, with 21 TDs and 14 interceptions. It’s just odd to have a UCLA team led by Chip Kelly with an offense with no cemented quarterback, and that hasn’t really been very high-powered. They have some talented receivers, but in order to succeed, it’s likely they will need to unveil their run game, with Carson Steele and TJ Harden leading the way. They likely still have enough talent to show Boise State a level of play they haven’t seen much in the Mountain West this season, but this offense has been a serious letdown, meandering through conference play with a dearth of overall highlights.

Boise a Dangerous Opponent

As we’ve seen the UCLA offense descend to the point in their last game where they managed a lone TD against Cal, we’re also seeing a Boise offense rise with a big hand from running back Ashton Jeanty and his 1814 yards and 19 TDs. Word is he is in, despite two big parts of their aerial offense having already entered the transfer portal. QB Taylen Green has been serviceable despite some dicey numbers. He can run the ball well and with George Holani along with Jeanty, it looks to be a big part of their approach this week. But they don’t eschew balance, with Green making enough connections so the “D” can’t focus solely on the run. But even if this season seems to be a waste for the Bruins with their offense not really holding up its end of the bargain, their defense was really an area of strength this year, and it makes you wonder where they’d be if they had some of their offenses of the past to accompany it.

I think a big challenge in breaking down this game lies in the matchup between the Boise run and what is a really good defensive front that the Bruins bring to the table. But against this peaking Boise offense, one wonders if that part of the Bruins’ profile might betray them if we see some players opting out prior to the game. It’s worth monitoring heading up to game time, but there is word that some key personnel may be gone; the ragged ending for the Bruins probably not helping the situation much, as players look to abandon ship. If that’s the case, it robs the Bruins of some of what they’d be relying on to win a matchup of this nature. Still, they are deep, and after quelling Pac-12 run-games for much of the year, they should still have enough for this part of their game to resonate some.

Take the Points on the Underdog

I like the way the Broncos have responded under head coach Spencer Danielson, who took over for a deposed Andy Avalos in midseason, transforming the trajectory of this team and leading them to a conference championship. Conversely, you have a Bruins team that sagged at the end of the season, playing its worst ball. Throw in some uncertainty with their defense from a personnel standpoint, their issues at QB, and a lack of real difference-makers on offense, and it seems like a weird time for a Bruins’ spike this week. I’ll take the Broncos in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Boise State Broncos plus 2 points.