Kentucky Wildcats vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Total Play

Kentucky Wildcats (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS)
College Football Week 10
Date/Time: Saturday November 4th, 2023. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Davis Wade Stadium Starkville, MS
TV: SECN

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: KEN -3.5/MSST +3.5
Moneyline: KEN -170/MSST +150
Total: 45

Following a perfect 5-0 SU start to the season, the Kentucky Wildcats potential Cinderella season has apparently struck midnight. Last week, the Wildcats suffered their 3rd straight defeat in a 33-27 loss to the Tennessee Volunteers. QB Devin Leary had one of the best performances of his career hitting 28 of 39 passing for 372 yards with two touchdowns. Despite the strong offensive performance, the Wildcats defense did not have any answers for Tennessee as they allowed 30 plus points for the 3rd game in a row.

Fortunately for Kentucky, this weeks road trip to Starkville appears to be a better match-up for the Wildcats defense. The Bulldogs are 4-4 SU on the season and have struggled heavily against SEC opponents in recent weeks. In fact, Mississippi State has scored just 20 points combined over their last two games and have been held to 17 points or less in 4 of their 5 games against SEC opponents this season. Needless to say, the Bulldogs are hoping to find some momentum on the offensive side of the football against a struggling Kentucky defense in hopes to get back above the .500 mark on the year.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Analysis

One of the major problems surrounding Mississippi States lackluster 2023 campaign has been the production of the offense. QB Will Rogers averaged nearly 300 yards per game over the last two years under former Head Coach Mike Leach. This season, Rogers has eclipsed the 200 yard mark just once on the season. To make matters worse, Rogers has been sidelined the last two games with an arm injury and his status for this weekends game against Kentucky is doubtful.

Backup QB Mike Wright has not provided any improvement at the position outside of his running ability which has turned the Bulldogs offense into a one-dimensional and yet predictable threat. There is even speculation that Mississippi State may turn to a 3rd quarterback option this week in former 4-star prospect Chris Parson. While I am not going to pretend to know much about Parsons abilities, the one thing I will say is that nothing could be much worse at this point in the season. However, I believe a lot of the offensive woes may reside with the current coaching staff as much as it relates to the personnel.

Perhaps the good news for Bulldogs fans is that Kentucky plays a rather conservative offensive approach as well which typically resides behind the running game and running back Ray Davis. Davis currently leads the SEC with 823 rushing yards and is the heart of this Kentucky offense. However, just as we saw last week against Tennessee, QB Devin Leary is also capable of quality performances but remains inconsistent to say the least. Needless to say, this may not be the most electric offensive performance on either side of the football.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Trends

• Kentucky is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games on the road.
• Kentucky has hit the “over” in each of the last 5 games.
• Kentucky is 4-10 SU in the last 14 games against Mississippi State.
• Kentucky has hit the “over” in 5 of the last 6 games against SEC opponents.
• Mississippi State is 1-6 ATS in the last 7 games.
• Mississippi State has hit the “over” in 4 of the last 6 games.
• Mississippi State has hit the “under” in 5 of the last 6 games against Kentucky.
• Mississippi State is 6-0 SU in the last 6 games at home against Kentucky.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction

This betting line is rather odd to me because I believe Kentucky is a much better overall football team. However, the match-up is not ideal especially after a 3rd straight defeat where we may question Kentuckys current confidence. As a result, Im betting on an ugly game that favors the defenses as the best play for this SEC showdown.

Jays Pick: Take the under 45