Kentucky vs Louisville Betting Analysis & Pick: Nov 25 Best Bet

Kentucky Wildcats (6-5 SU, ATS 5-5) vs Louisville Cardinals (10-1 SU, ATS 5-5)

Date: 12:00 EST Saturday, November 25th

Location: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Ken +7/Lou -7

Money Line: UK +225/U of Lou -282

Over/Under: 51.5

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The Kentucky Wildcats and Louisville Cardinals matchup in a non-conference showdown at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, KY. The over/under for this matchup is currently 51.5, while Louisville is favored by -7.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Kentucky currently holds the bragging rights over Louisville as in their most recent head-to-head matchup, they won 26-13. In the game, Kentucky threw for 188 yards while averaging 17.1 yards per completion. Louisville ran for 164 compared to 158 for Kentucky.

Kentucky Wildcats Recent Form:

Kentucky’s record took a hit as it dropped to 6-5 following their recent game against South Carolina. The Wildcats ended up losing the matchup with a score of 17-14.

Against the spread, Kentucky was not able to cover as 2.5-point underdogs. On the over/under, the line was 52 going into the game resulting in the under hitting.

In the loss against South Carolina, quarterback Devin Leary achieved a QB rating of 62.25, completing 17 of 34 passes for 171 yards. Additionally, he contributed one touchdown to the game.

Kentucky’s leading rusher against South Carolina was Ray Davis, who along with rushing for 61 yards, he found the endzone one time in his 12 attempts. Leading Kentucky in receiving against South Carolina was Dane Key. Although he didn’t catch a touchdown pass, he finished with 51 yards on four receptions.

The Wildcats’ defense finished the game by giving up 259 total yards to South Carolina. The team’s run defense allowed 52 yards rushing compared to 207 in the passing game. Kentucky’s defense holds the 87th rank in passing yards allowed per game as they head into this game. On average, opponents have made 32.5 passing attempts against the Wildcats. They have given up 24.3 points per game, which places them at 92nd in college football. In the rush defense category, they rank 30th in the NCAA.

Away Injury Report

Louisville Cardinals Recent Form:

Louisville’s 38-31 win over Miami moved their record to 10-1 as they head into this week’s matchup with Kentucky.

Going into the game, the oddsmakers had this one as a pick em, giving Louisville an ATS win. The team’s combined 69 points surpassed the over/under line of 46.5.

In the win against Miami, quarterback Jack Plummer wrapped up the game with a QB rating of 106.59 after completing 24 of 37 passes for 308 yards. He also added three touchdowns to his performance.

Isaac Guerendo carried the ball 15 times against Miami, leading the team with 93 yards and one touchdown. The team’s top receiver was Kevin Coleman, who hauled in one touchdown and caught two balls for 58 yards.

Defensively, Louisville allowed a total of 486 yards to Miami. This includes giving up 159 yards allowed on the ground and 327 passing yards. The Cardinals’ defense comes into the game with 27 sacks and ranked 1st in QB hurries. In terms of points allowed, they are giving up 18.4 points per game (64th). When it comes to defending the pass, they are ranked 84th in the NCAA, allowing an average of 219 passing yards per game. Additionally, Louisville’s run defense comes in allowing 100.1 rushing yards per contest.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• When playing on the road, Kentucky has an ATS mark of 3-2 vs. the spread.
• Louisville is 1-4 Against the spread in their last five games at home.
• In the three most recent times they were the underdog, Louisville has put together an ATS record of 1-2.
• Over their last five games as the betting favorite, Kentucky has an ATS record of 4-1.

Free Pick

Louisville sits at 10-1 this season. However, they have the same ATS record as Kentucky at 5-5. Coming into the game, they are favored a touchdown at home. Even though the Cardinals have been mediocre vs. the spread this season, I see them being too much on offense, Kentucky. My pick is Louisville ATS.