Kentucky vs. Florida: College Football Week 8 Predictions & Picks

Kentucky Wildcats (3-3 SU, ATS 4-2)  vs Florida Gators (3-3 SU, ATS 2-2)
Date: 7:45 EST Saturday, October 19th
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
TV: SECN
Point Spread: UK +1/UF -1
Money Line: UK -107/UF  -114
Over/Under: 42.5

The SEC Network will be covering this week’s Week 8 matchup between the Kentucky Wildcats and the Florida Gators, set to kick off at 7:45 ET from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville. The Gators are technically the home team, and the Wildcats are coming in with a 3-3 record, just like the Gators. The over/under line is currently sitting at 42.5 points, and the Wildcats are the slight -1 point spread favorite on the road.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Kentucky Wildcats and Florida Gators did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Kentucky Wildcats have a record of 2-1. The Kentucky Wildcats also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 52 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 1-2.

Kentucky Wildcats Recent Form:

Kentucky heads into Week 8 with a 3-3 record, facing Florida on the road. They are 2-3 at home but have won their only away game. The Wildcats are ranked 32nd in our power rankings, and they have a 50.1% chance of becoming bowl-eligible for the rest of the season.

Against the spread, Kentucky is 4-2, with a +6 average scoring margin. They are 2-2 ATS as the favorite and 2-0 as the underdog.

Their over/under record is 1-5, with an average line of 45.8 points. This week’s line is set at 42.5 points, and their games have averaged 35 points per contest.

Kentucky’s offense has been underwhelming this season, averaging just 20.5 points per game, which ranks 80th nationally. They are 66th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 8. Their passing game has struggled, ranking 115th in passing yards per game, and they are 101st in passer rating. On average, they attempt 23.8 passes per game.

Brock Vandagriff leads the team with 951 passing yards and a passer rating of 88. He has thrown five touchdowns and two interceptions. Demie Sumo-Karngbaye has rushed for 380 yards and four touchdowns. Kentucky is 24th in rushing attempts per game, averaging 155 rushing yards per game. Dane Key has 452 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

Despite Kentucky’s recent 20-13 loss to Vanderbilt, their defense allowed just 20 points, giving up 290 total yards, including 147 rushing yards on 34 attempts and 143 passing yards. They also recorded an interception in the game.

On the season, Kentucky’s defense ranks 8th nationally, allowing just 14.5 points per game. Opponents are averaging 90.5 rushing yards per game and 162.2 passing yards. Quarterbacks have completed 66% of their passes against Kentucky, with a passer rating of 85.9.

Away Injury Report

Florida Gators Recent Form:

Florida enters Week 8 against Kentucky with a 3-3 record, ranked 27th in our power rankings. They have a 34.8% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. At home, they are 1-2, while they’ve gone 1-0 on the road this season.

The Gators have been favored in just one game this year, holding a +3.8 average scoring margin. Their ATS record stands at 2-2, with a 1-0 mark as favorites and 0-2 as underdogs.

Florida’s over/under record is 3-1, with their games averaging 52.2 points. This week’s line is 42.5, compared to their average line of 54.8 points.

Florida’s passing game has been the strength of their offense, ranking 35th in completions and 41st in passing yards, with an average of 261 yards per game. They are 50th in scoring, with 28 points per game, and we have them ranked 39th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 8.

Graham Mertz has completed 76.6% of his passes for 791 yards and has a passer rating of 113. He has thrown six touchdowns and two interceptions. Elijhah Badger leads the team with 376 receiving yards on 19 catches.

Florida’s defense will look to improve after allowing 23 points in their recent loss to Tennessee. They gave up 312 total yards, including 143 rushing yards on 43 attempts and 169 passing yards, though they did manage to force an interception.

Opponents have averaged 24.2 points per game against Florida, with 213.5 passing yards per game. The Gators’ defense has allowed a 63.1% completion rate and 167.8 rushing yards per game this season.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past five road matchups, Kentucky has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 21 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
• Through their last ten home games, Florida has an ATS record of just 5-5. However, their overall record was 2-8 while averaging 25 points per game.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Kentucky Wildcats have a straight-up record of 2-3 and an ATS mark of 4-1.
• Over the team’s last five games as the favorite, the Florida Gators struggled vs the spread going just 2-3. However, they still had a straight up mark of 4-1.

Free Pick

For this matchup between Kentucky and Florida, we essentially have a pick ’em, with Florida getting the slight edge at -1. But the way I’m playing this one is to go with Kentucky to win this one straight-up. Their defense is going to cause problems for Florida, and I see them coming out of Gainesville with a win. I’d take Kentucky on the money line.

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